We had a whole list of topics to discuss, and then that went out the window around 11:15 Friday morning! Pretty much just one story to cover this week. Our reporters react to the unexpected news that Governor Kim Reynolds will not run for reelection in 2026.
How much of a surprise was this? Is Chris Cournoyer a possibility? Is Brenna Bird now a lock for the GOP primary? Will there be a serious primary challenger to Brenna Bird if she decides to run? How much will Trump’s record effect the electorate? How does this effect the democratic primary? Is it now a one-man (Rob Sand) show? We end with when was the last time a politician announcing they weren’t running for reelection was this surprising? Have a good weekend, and thanks for watching/listening!
Transcript:
Dave Price (00:00:03):
Hi,
Dave Price (00:00:03):
everyone,
Dave Price (00:00:03):
and welcome to the Iowa Down Ballad podcast,
Dave Price (00:00:07):
a production of the Iowa Riders Collaborative.
Dave Price (00:00:10):
We gather here every week to talk about all kinds of stuff going on at the Iowa legislature.
Dave Price (00:00:16):
Primarily.
Dave Price (00:00:18):
And that's what we thought we were going to do in this episode as well.
Dave Price (00:00:22):
Until late Friday morning when stuff really, really changed.
Dave Price (00:00:25):
Let's bring in our contributors for this week, Laura Bellin, Kathy Obradovich.
Dave Price (00:00:31):
Ladies,
Dave Price (00:00:31):
as we know,
Dave Price (00:00:32):
we sort of put together this little rundown of stuff we're going to talk about.
Dave Price (00:00:36):
And today we could just hit delete,
Dave Price (00:00:39):
although Laura and I are having ridiculous computer issues,
Dave Price (00:00:42):
so perhaps they would have already been deleted anyway.
Dave Price (00:00:45):
But we're going to probably just have one topic, don't you think?
Dave Price (00:00:48):
I think so.
Dave Price (00:00:50):
All right, Kathy, so you're sitting there in your palatial office today, right?
Dave Price (00:00:55):
And all of a sudden your phone starts buzzing.
Kathie Obradovich (00:00:59):
Yes.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:00):
So we had we knew that there was going to be some sort of announcement today.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:06):
But like I think just about every politics watcher in Iowa,
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:12):
we assumed that it would be that the governor,
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:15):
Kim Reynolds,
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:16):
was announcing that she was running for reelection.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:19):
And I had a reporter watching for the announcement.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:23):
I actually was running an errand, and it was in Norwalk, of all places.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:31):
But I kept watching for the announcement,
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:35):
and yeah,
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:36):
all of a sudden seeing people thanking the governor for her service,
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:42):
I was like,
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:42):
what are you doing?
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:44):
Well, wait a minute.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:45):
Yeah.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:45):
Back it up.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:46):
Back it up.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:47):
So, I mean, I have gone back and forth about whether I thought she was going to run.
Kathie Obradovich (00:01:53):
And way back during the caucus campaign when she endorsed Ron DeSantis.
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:01):
over Donald Trump in the Iowa caucus campaign,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:05):
I thought that might be a sign that she was not thinking about running.
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:10):
I mean, or that she might that she might not run for reelection to poke Donald Trump in the eye.
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:19):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:19):
as you're,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:20):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:20):
potentially,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:21):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:22):
heading into another re-election campaign didn't seem like the smartest move in the world.
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:27):
You know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:28):
maybe it would have been if Ron DeSantis had won,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:31):
but,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:31):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:34):
and we all have reported on the governor's husband's health with his lung cancer,
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:44):
et cetera.
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:44):
So I really did think
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:46):
You know, as recently as the summer before 2024 that that she might not run.
Kathie Obradovich (00:02:55):
However, this year in 2025, she has given every indication that she was going to run.
Dave Price (00:03:00):
She basically told us in February she was running, right?
Laura Belin (00:03:04):
She said, I'm running on my record.
Dave Price (00:03:06):
Yes.
Laura Belin (00:03:07):
And then Amanda Rooker said, Governor, are you running?
Laura Belin (00:03:10):
And she said, well, no announcement.
Laura Belin (00:03:12):
Stay tuned.
Laura Belin (00:03:14):
No announcement today.
Laura Belin (00:03:16):
I mean,
Laura Belin (00:03:16):
I would say in early 2024,
Laura Belin (00:03:19):
I think the conventional wisdom was that she was not running.
Laura Belin (00:03:21):
That's what I heard from most of my sources.
Laura Belin (00:03:23):
Very early.
Laura Belin (00:03:25):
Very early.
Laura Belin (00:03:25):
But as soon as the Senate Majority Leader Jack Whitver's cancer diagnosis became
Laura Belin (00:03:33):
publicly known,
Laura Belin (00:03:34):
that's when things started changing,
Laura Belin (00:03:36):
at least for me.
Laura Belin (00:03:38):
I started hearing well.
Laura Belin (00:03:40):
maybe she might run.
Laura Belin (00:03:41):
And then when she chose Chris Knoyer as her new lieutenant governor,
Laura Belin (00:03:45):
I thought for sure she's running because if she weren't planning to run,
Laura Belin (00:03:48):
she would pick somebody who might be in a position to step up and run for the office.
Laura Belin (00:03:52):
And Chris Knoyer is a Nikki Haley endorser.
Laura Belin (00:03:56):
I mean, it's not somebody who is seriously positioned to win a statewide GOP primary.
Laura Belin (00:04:00):
So
Laura Belin (00:04:01):
And as Dave just mentioned,
Laura Belin (00:04:03):
in February at a press conference,
Laura Belin (00:04:04):
the governor basically said,
Laura Belin (00:04:06):
I'm gonna be running on my record.
Laura Belin (00:04:07):
She was asked about former state representative,
Laura Belin (00:04:10):
Brad Sherman,
Laura Belin (00:04:10):
who had just announced that he was planning to run for governor.
Laura Belin (00:04:13):
And I presumed would likely be in a primary against the governor.
Laura Belin (00:04:17):
So she raised a decent amount of money last year,
Laura Belin (00:04:20):
which again,
Laura Belin (00:04:21):
indicates that somebody is planning to seek another term.
Laura Belin (00:04:24):
So I was very surprised by today's news.
Dave Price (00:04:28):
i feel like i need to like split my head in half because i feel like one half i
Dave Price (00:04:35):
could make a solid argument and pick up all these breadcrumbs over the last two
Dave Price (00:04:40):
years where i felt like she wasn't going to run and then the other half would be
Dave Price (00:04:44):
the complete opposite of that largely reflects the timeline you laid out kathy i
Dave Price (00:04:51):
just remember her talking after kevin's diagnosis and
Dave Price (00:04:57):
I mean,
Dave Price (00:04:58):
obviously,
Dave Price (00:04:58):
that's a huge,
Dave Price (00:04:59):
scary thing to go through,
Dave Price (00:05:01):
not to mention the governor's been helping out with her folks who are up there in
Dave Price (00:05:07):
their 80s,
Dave Price (00:05:08):
and they've had some stuff to navigate.
Dave Price (00:05:11):
And so she's involved in all of those fronts.
Dave Price (00:05:15):
And she has made the comment that she didn't want to be in office forever.
Dave Price (00:05:19):
And so I felt like,
Dave Price (00:05:21):
and then you go all the way up to the DeSantis announcement,
Dave Price (00:05:24):
and you're thinking,
Dave Price (00:05:25):
all right,
Dave Price (00:05:26):
she's thinking she wants the party to break from trump maybe desantis is the best
Dave Price (00:05:31):
way to do that move forward trump loses they're done with that and then whatever
Dave Price (00:05:36):
happens happens but it did seem like
Dave Price (00:05:40):
I mean, even on election night, she was not in Iowa on election night.
Dave Price (00:05:45):
She was at Mar-a-Lago with Joni Ernst.
Dave Price (00:05:48):
Two people who really wanted to repair their relationship with Donald Trump.
Dave Price (00:05:53):
And she's been to D.C.
Dave Price (00:05:54):
who knows how many times since then.
Dave Price (00:05:56):
It just seemed like she was doing everything to repair that relationship.
Dave Price (00:06:01):
And I kept dropping that in my stories on TV talking about that because it seemed like
Dave Price (00:06:06):
That was a priority for her.
Dave Price (00:06:07):
And at that same news conference you talked about,
Dave Price (00:06:09):
Laura,
Dave Price (00:06:10):
I remember asking her about if she expected to get Trump's endorsement and she said
Dave Price (00:06:14):
something about kind of like,
Dave Price (00:06:15):
we'll see.
Dave Price (00:06:16):
And she laid out a bunch of stuff she's done and she assumed that he would like all
Dave Price (00:06:20):
those things.
Dave Price (00:06:22):
And so, man, you line all those things up and you wonder what changed between then and now.
Dave Price (00:06:28):
And hopefully it is just that she's done and that there's not some kind of
Dave Price (00:06:34):
health situation in any way.
Dave Price (00:06:35):
I did find it interesting,
Dave Price (00:06:38):
especially this session,
Dave Price (00:06:39):
and I think I've mentioned this to you two before.
Dave Price (00:06:41):
I don't know that I have,
Dave Price (00:06:44):
I moved here in 2001,
Dave Price (00:06:45):
so I think I have four governors if I'm counting right in my head.
Dave Price (00:06:49):
I don't know that I ever remember a governor doing fewer public appearances than
Dave Price (00:06:53):
Kim Reynolds has done.
Dave Price (00:06:56):
Now,
Dave Price (00:06:56):
maybe it's because they don't put a bunch of her stuff on the public schedule and
Dave Price (00:07:00):
I'm just not there.
Dave Price (00:07:01):
But it just seems like she's not as visible as she was before.
Dave Price (00:07:05):
Do you agree with that?
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:06):
Right.
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:08):
And Chuck Culver,
Dave Price (00:07:10):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:10):
during his really the second half of his term also was criticized for being pretty absent,
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:18):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:19):
absent,
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:20):
not only.
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:22):
you know, absent from the media, which he didn't like doing.
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:26):
He did not do nearly as many
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:29):
news conferences, for example, as even Tom Vilsack did.
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:33):
And Tom Vilsack didn't like news conferences.
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:36):
He didn't want to do one every week.
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:41):
But I think that,
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:44):
and he was also sort of criticized for not meeting with groups that had become used
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:51):
to being able to meet with the governor pretty much whenever they wanted.
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:55):
And those things hurt him.
Kathie Obradovich (00:07:57):
I thought it hurt him when he tried to run for reelection,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:02):
along with the fact that we were in a national recession and he had to deal with
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:07):
that as well.
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:08):
But yeah,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:11):
I would say just,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:11):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:12):
particularly in her,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:15):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:15):
since her reelection and even some before then,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:18):
that Kim Reynolds has been,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:20):
first of all,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:20):
unavailable to the press and in particularly mainstream press.
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:25):
She she would still talk to some of the conservative media and,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:31):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:32):
really not not very visible out in the state either.
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:36):
We used to get weekly, you know, public schedules.
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:41):
where we would see lots of appearances that she would be around the stage.
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:45):
She might not talk to the media and every one of those, but at least we could see where she was.
Kathie Obradovich (00:08:49):
And we rarely get one of those either.
Dave Price (00:08:54):
Yeah, that really changed.
Dave Price (00:08:55):
I don't know what the day was like for you both,
Dave Price (00:08:59):
but I was fascinated by texting because that's,
Dave Price (00:09:03):
you know,
Dave Price (00:09:04):
text is,
Dave Price (00:09:04):
we don't have phone calls anymore.
Dave Price (00:09:06):
So almost all my conversations today were via text,
Dave Price (00:09:09):
which I guess is more efficient and probably means I'm old because who knows how
Dave Price (00:09:14):
the youngsters are communicating,
Dave Price (00:09:15):
probably snapping each other or whatever they do.
Dave Price (00:09:17):
I'll have to ask my son how they communicate.
Dave Price (00:09:19):
But I was taken...
Dave Price (00:09:23):
maybe a back a little bit, but we have a lieutenant governor right now.
Dave Price (00:09:27):
And yet,
Dave Price (00:09:28):
from the people who are messaging me today,
Dave Price (00:09:31):
I don't think Chris Knoyer came up once until I brought her up,
Dave Price (00:09:37):
which was sort of fascinating to me that the incumbent governor is not top of mind.
Dave Price (00:09:41):
When people start thinking about the nominee in 2026, what was it like for you both?
Laura Belin (00:09:47):
Well, I was at the Iowa Safe Schools Conference.
Laura Belin (00:09:50):
They're what they call their annual governor's conference.
Laura Belin (00:09:53):
And I was about to lead a workshop on editorial writing just minutes before the
Laura Belin (00:09:57):
workshop began is when I got the news.
Laura Belin (00:09:59):
So I was able to announce to a room full of LGBTQ teenagers that Kim Reynolds was
Laura Belin (00:10:04):
not running for reelection and there was much celebration.
Laura Belin (00:10:07):
But yeah.
Laura Belin (00:10:08):
i don't think i mean i i couldn't immediately communicate with a lot of political
Laura Belin (00:10:12):
people but i'm not surprised that that chris knoyer wasn't top of mind she's only
Laura Belin (00:10:17):
been lieutenant governor for a few months and she just doesn't have a statewide
Laura Belin (00:10:21):
base in the republican party i mean i think that all eyes are going to be on the
Laura Belin (00:10:25):
attorney general brenda bird at this point
Laura Belin (00:10:28):
And what she decides,
Laura Belin (00:10:29):
I think if she doesn't run for governor,
Laura Belin (00:10:32):
then there may be other Republicans who get in the race.
Laura Belin (00:10:34):
But I feel that she's the prohibitive favorite at this point,
Laura Belin (00:10:38):
if she decides to run for governor,
Laura Belin (00:10:40):
at least in the Republican primary.
Kathie Obradovich (00:10:44):
I immediately started thinking, well, who is going to run?
Kathie Obradovich (00:10:47):
Because that's the way all of our minds work.
Kathie Obradovich (00:10:51):
And really, my list was very, very short.
Kathie Obradovich (00:10:55):
Brad Sherman,
Kathie Obradovich (00:10:56):
who's already announced he's running,
Kathie Obradovich (00:10:59):
and Brenna Byrd,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:00):
because she stood up next to Donald Trump when he won the caucuses,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:05):
and he said,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:06):
what a great governor she would be.
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:09):
And he has
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:11):
gone out of his way to praise her.
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:15):
And I think in part as a stick in the eye to Kim Reynolds, who did not endorse him before the
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:25):
And then her statement,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:29):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:30):
after Reynolds announced she was not running,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:33):
was a very,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:35):
very thinly veiled,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:37):
I'm thinking about writing statement.
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:39):
She said she and her husband would have to think about, you know, how this works.
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:44):
how,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:44):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:44):
how their lives would be affected and,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:46):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:47):
thanking people for all the calls that she's,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:49):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:50):
getting,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:50):
encouraging me,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:52):
which,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:52):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:53):
I'm presumably encouraging her to run.
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:55):
So.
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:56):
So,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:56):
yeah,
Kathie Obradovich (00:11:58):
I do think that she is that,
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:01):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:01):
the most likely and probably highest profile Republican that will we're likely to
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:07):
see get in the race.
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:08):
We may see others and
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:11):
And there's there's likely to be, you know, we're obviously going to have a primary.
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:17):
I'm sure Sherman's not going to drop out just just because Kim Reynolds is getting,
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:24):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:25):
Kim Reynolds is out and Brenna Bird is in.
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:27):
But I mean,
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:28):
also,
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:28):
I think it's very interesting to see what will happen with the with the Democratic
Kathie Obradovich (00:12:34):
field as well.
Dave Price (00:12:35):
And we'll get to the Democrats here in a couple of minutes.
Dave Price (00:12:38):
I only say this half sarcastically,
Dave Price (00:12:40):
but when that notice went out,
Dave Price (00:12:43):
I was wondering if the first thing that Brenna Byrd did was text the current
Dave Price (00:12:48):
president of the United States,
Dave Price (00:12:50):
reminding him of his comment,
Dave Price (00:12:52):
or booking a plane for herself and her husband to fly to Washington,
Dave Price (00:12:56):
D.C.
Dave Price (00:12:57):
to get that endorsement official, because that seems like that's the big one to watch, right?
Dave Price (00:13:03):
If President Trump gets in this and supports Byrd,
Dave Price (00:13:07):
then what does that mean for Mike Nagg,
Dave Price (00:13:10):
the Agriculture Secretary?
Dave Price (00:13:12):
Ashley Hinson, does she want it?
Dave Price (00:13:13):
Does she want to wait until Chuck Grassley retires?
Dave Price (00:13:16):
You know, is she more interested in that?
Dave Price (00:13:17):
I mean, there are a few of these names.
Dave Price (00:13:20):
We're hearing Mike Bussolo, the state senator, apparently has a little interest.
Laura Belin (00:13:24):
Speaking of Washington,
Laura Belin (00:13:26):
Reese Gorman,
Laura Belin (00:13:26):
who's a congressional reporter for Notice,
Laura Belin (00:13:29):
reported today that Zach Nunn of the 3rd District,
Laura Belin (00:13:33):
quote,
Laura Belin (00:13:33):
is being pushed by those close to him to mount a run for governor of Iowa,
Laura Belin (00:13:37):
a source familiar with the matter said,
Laura Belin (00:13:39):
unquote.
Laura Belin (00:13:40):
And supposedly Nunn is talking it over with his family.
Laura Belin (00:13:43):
I don't really see a statewide constituency for Zach Nunn in the Republican Party.
Laura Belin (00:13:48):
I mean, he's not a MAGA favorite.
Laura Belin (00:13:50):
He
Laura Belin (00:13:51):
was a Jeb Bush endorser before the 2016 caucuses.
Laura Belin (00:13:54):
So I'm not really sure where that's going,
Laura Belin (00:13:56):
but he's certainly looking at a tough reelection bid in the third district.
Laura Belin (00:14:00):
But I cannot see somebody beating Brenna Byrd in the primary if she runs.
Laura Belin (00:14:06):
If she doesn't run,
Laura Belin (00:14:07):
then I think a lot of people,
Laura Belin (00:14:08):
maybe like some of the people you mentioned or some current state legislators might
Laura Belin (00:14:12):
get in,
Laura Belin (00:14:13):
but it's hard for me to see.
Laura Belin (00:14:14):
I thought Mike Buslow,
Laura Belin (00:14:15):
I've heard speculation that he could be a Republican candidate for state auditor
Laura Belin (00:14:19):
next year.
Dave Price (00:14:21):
Potentially.
Dave Price (00:14:22):
I am curious,
Dave Price (00:14:23):
though,
Dave Price (00:14:23):
if it's both Sherman and Byrd in there,
Dave Price (00:14:26):
if there's room for a third to go center,
Dave Price (00:14:31):
center left,
Dave Price (00:14:31):
which they would want to say that in the Republican Party.
Dave Price (00:14:33):
But,
Dave Price (00:14:34):
you know,
Dave Price (00:14:34):
is there a chunk that may want to turn away from Trump,
Dave Price (00:14:39):
depending on what the economy and everything else looks like,
Dave Price (00:14:41):
whereas Byrd and Sherman would be very,
Dave Price (00:14:44):
very closely connected to Trump?
Laura Belin (00:14:46):
I don't know.
Laura Belin (00:14:49):
Yeah, that's a primary electorate is a bunch of people who think the 2020 election was stolen.
Laura Belin (00:14:55):
You know, I mean, the 20, the 2026 primary electorate is going to be dominated by MAGA people.
Dave Price (00:15:05):
Could be,
Dave Price (00:15:05):
although they haven't they haven't shown up in the past when it's an off year like that.
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:11):
I think it's going to be really interesting to see,
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:13):
first of all,
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:14):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:15):
if anybody runs for reelection or runs for election and is actually going to talk
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:20):
about the effect that Trump is going to have on states like Iowa.
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:29):
You know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:29):
we have a situation now where,
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:33):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:33):
tariffs,
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:34):
the uncertainty for tariffs is affecting the economy.
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:39):
We've got a situation where the state has already cut taxes to the point that it is
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:45):
not supporting spending.
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:49):
And we also don't know what's going to happen with the farm economy,
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:54):
both with tariffs and the crackdown on immigration.
Kathie Obradovich (00:15:57):
I think there's a lot of uncertainty with the economy and definitely the ag economy.
Kathie Obradovich (00:16:06):
And if I were
Kathie Obradovich (00:16:08):
Kim Reynolds thinking another two years,
Kathie Obradovich (00:16:11):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:16:12):
another term of essentially having to probably roll back some of the things that
Kathie Obradovich (00:16:18):
they have done because the state can't afford it probably wouldn't have been very appealing,
Kathie Obradovich (00:16:24):
frankly.
Dave Price (00:16:25):
So she wanted to get the income tax down to zero before the end of this term,
Dave Price (00:16:30):
which does not seem possible.
Dave Price (00:16:32):
Even when you talk to some of the Republican legislators who would support
Dave Price (00:16:35):
something like that,
Dave Price (00:16:36):
the math just doesn't seem to be there.
Laura Belin (00:16:38):
I don't think that they're going to roll back anything,
Laura Belin (00:16:40):
but the budget will be in total collapse by the end of this decade.
Laura Belin (00:16:45):
I mean, there's absolutely no way they can sustain.
Laura Belin (00:16:48):
We have enough in surplus and reserve funds to cover a deficit for a few years,
Laura Belin (00:16:54):
but I don't see revenues rebounding,
Laura Belin (00:16:56):
particularly if the country goes into a recession.
Laura Belin (00:16:59):
But even if there's no recession,
Laura Belin (00:17:00):
I don't think that state revenues are going to rebound like what the projections say.
Laura Belin (00:17:04):
I'm just very skeptical about that.
Dave Price (00:17:06):
Okay,
Dave Price (00:17:07):
what about the,
Dave Price (00:17:07):
I'm sorry,
Dave Price (00:17:08):
I cut one of you off talking about the Democrats,
Dave Price (00:17:11):
but I mean,
Dave Price (00:17:12):
it's pretty much Rob Sand and his 8 million plus that he has raised,
Dave Price (00:17:18):
which is largely
Dave Price (00:17:21):
scared away.
Dave Price (00:17:22):
Others who had at least been thinking about running for governor.
Dave Price (00:17:25):
I have talked to a few people who had thought about it,
Dave Price (00:17:28):
but frankly,
Dave Price (00:17:29):
just do not see how they could possibly compete with that kind of money.
Dave Price (00:17:32):
Plus, sand is the only statewide Democrat there is.
Dave Price (00:17:35):
So there's got to be something in that.
Dave Price (00:17:38):
Do we expect at this point that Democrats won't really have a primary?
Kathie Obradovich (00:17:41):
I mean, I think it
Kathie Obradovich (00:17:44):
I think there will be.
Kathie Obradovich (00:17:45):
There's always going to be some opportunistic folks who now see an open seat.
Kathie Obradovich (00:17:53):
Democrats like to think that money isn't the only thing that's important in some of
Kathie Obradovich (00:17:59):
these elections.
Kathie Obradovich (00:18:00):
And sometimes it's not.
Kathie Obradovich (00:18:02):
Sometimes it's not.
Kathie Obradovich (00:18:04):
So I do think that we will see some other candidates get in.
Kathie Obradovich (00:18:08):
Now, whether it's anyone that
Kathie Obradovich (00:18:11):
is likely to be taken seriously next to Rob Sand, that remains to be seen.
Laura Belin (00:18:18):
I think somebody will challenge, will run kind of to the left of Rob Sand.
Laura Belin (00:18:22):
I mean,
Laura Belin (00:18:23):
my perception as I go around the state talking to Democrats is Rob Sand is very
Laura Belin (00:18:28):
well liked,
Laura Belin (00:18:29):
but there is a segment of the Democratic Party,
Laura Belin (00:18:32):
particularly on the left,
Laura Belin (00:18:33):
that is not a big fan.
Laura Belin (00:18:35):
So I think there's room for somebody to file for the primary running on
Laura Belin (00:18:41):
I mean, for lack of a better term word, like the Bernie Sanders type agenda.
Laura Belin (00:18:45):
But I think it's very hard for me to see that somebody could seriously challenge
Laura Belin (00:18:51):
Rob Sand in the Democratic primary.
Laura Belin (00:18:52):
I mean, to threaten to win a primary against Rob Sand, I think is extremely unlikely.
Dave Price (00:18:57):
OK, let's end like this by really making you think in the Wayback Machine.
Dave Price (00:19:03):
Was there an announcement about somebody not running the
Dave Price (00:19:08):
that surprised you this much?
Dave Price (00:19:11):
And I can't even answer my own question as I'm thinking out loud about this.
Laura Belin (00:19:16):
I mean, this is not the same thing.
Laura Belin (00:19:18):
I was pretty surprised that Adam Gregg stepped down as lieutenant governor.
Laura Belin (00:19:22):
That was a surprise to me.
Laura Belin (00:19:25):
I knew that he wasn't particularly happy in that role.
Laura Belin (00:19:29):
But in terms of somebody not running,
Laura Belin (00:19:33):
Yeah, I'm going to have to think about that.
Laura Belin (00:19:36):
I guess Tom Harkin not running for reelection in 2014 was a little surprising,
Laura Belin (00:19:41):
even though there were there was talk that maybe he was thinking about retiring.
Laura Belin (00:19:44):
But I think a lot of Democrats were hoping that wouldn't be true.
Kathie Obradovich (00:19:47):
I mean, it always surprises me when somebody announces that they're not running.
Kathie Obradovich (00:19:55):
It seems like people stay in office forever in Iowa.
Kathie Obradovich (00:19:58):
So, yeah.
Kathie Obradovich (00:20:00):
You know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:20:01):
there have been a few that,
Kathie Obradovich (00:20:03):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:20:04):
for example,
Kathie Obradovich (00:20:04):
Tom Vilsack said he was going to,
Kathie Obradovich (00:20:06):
you know,
Kathie Obradovich (00:20:07):
be go for two terms and that's it.
Kathie Obradovich (00:20:10):
So so we would have been surprised, I think, if he said he was going to run the third term.
Kathie Obradovich (00:20:15):
But, yeah, it's not that often that that people just hang it up without being forced out.
Dave Price (00:20:25):
Indeed.
Dave Price (00:20:26):
Well, thank you both.
Dave Price (00:20:27):
We really readjusted on the fly because of the breaking news today.
Dave Price (00:20:31):
So thank you for being nimble.
Laura Belin (00:20:35):
My pleasure.
Dave Price (00:20:37):
And thank you all for joining us for the Iowa Down Ballot podcast,
Dave Price (00:20:41):
a production from the Iowa Writers Collaborative.
Dave Price (00:20:44):
We want to give you special thanks to our producer, Spencer Dirks, music by D'Artagnan Brown.
Dave Price (00:20:51):
We will plan on joining you next week.
Dave Price (00:20:54):
Perhaps we'll have something equally as breaking as this one.
Dave Price (00:20:57):
It might be hard to match, but we'll see.
Dave Price (00:21:00):
And please continue to support the Iowa Writers Collaborative.
Share this post