The team starts off by remembering Jay Byers, Simpson College president and former CEO of the Des Moines Partnership, after his passing on Thursday. Topics this week include; 52 unsolved cases will be printed on playing cards and distributed in the state’s prisons to generate new leads under Attorney General’s initiative; Bill allowing child victims to testify remotely advances in the Iowa House; Update on the ‘Baby Olivia’ video bill; Governor Reynolds has received a bill that would require high schoolers to pass the US citizenship test in order to graduate; Ashley Hinson has competition in US House District 2; Who might run against Sen. Ernst in a republican primary? Nathan Sage enters the US Senate race on the democratic side against Joni Ernst, and the launch video that Dave mentions can be found right here:
That’s about it for this week! Please share, comment, like, etc. Paid subscribers are always welcome as well. We appreciate your support. Have a nice Easter and Passover!
Here’s the transcript for those checking this out on the Substack Notes app:
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Hi,
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everyone,
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and welcome to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast,
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a production of the Iowa Writers Collaborative,
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our group of about 70 independent writers from all over the place writing about
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numerous topics,
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including politics,
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which is what we're talking about here on the podcast.
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Let's bring in our contributors for this week, Laura Bellin and Kathy Obradovich.
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Happy Friday to both of you.
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Good to be here.
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Goodness, thanks.
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Let's start off with something super, super sad on Thursday.
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A very,
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very well-known figure in the community,
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Jay Byers,
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who since the summer of 2023 has been the president of Simpson College,
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was found dead in the president's residence hall,
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which is just kind of right near campus.
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there in Indianola.
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And you both know Jay.
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Jay has been a part of so many circles.
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Started in politics.
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He worked for Leonard Boswell a long time ago.
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He was the head of the Greater Des Moines Partnership for more than 11 years and
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really helped build that organization to hand it off to where it is today.
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was really excited to go back to Simpson,
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his alma mater,
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to become president there and was all about promoting Simpson,
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but was part of so many community efforts and business efforts.
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And he was a musician, a guitar player.
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I mean, he was so well known and so beloved.
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And it's so sad for Katie.
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Katie and the girls about about Jay's passing.
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But did you did you all want to share a quick note?
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I would just say, you know, Jay was so well known and his enthusiasm was so infectious.
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I mean,
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he was always I never saw him when it wasn't on,
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you know,
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and and he had such enthusiasm and he would have I mean,
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he already was doing good things at Simpson
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And as you said, he was very influential with the Greater Des Moines Partnership.
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It's just, I mean, when he would walk into a room, he knew everyone, everybody knew him.
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And yeah, it's completely shocking.
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I was driving back from running an errand yesterday and my reporter called and I
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practically had to stop the car.
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I was so shocked.
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It's just a tragedy.
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I didn't know him personally.
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I had met him.
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I had seen him at events representing the partnership.
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But I didn't even know about his music background.
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But I saw just the outpouring of posts that I saw yesterday that he was a mentor to many people.
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And somebody said he even gave her guitar lessons.
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So just really incredibly tragic.
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And I was so sad to hear.
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Jay was so great in so many capacities over the years.
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But personally, he was also...
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super helpful for me to sit down and have coffee as we sort of brainstorm my
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midlife reinvention.
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He was very helpful with that.
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He always had advice for stuff.
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He was so super well-read that he could cite some, oh, you ought to read this.
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And he has touched so many people in so many different ways.
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So, so sorry for his wife.
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and and the girls as they as they mourn his loss okay let's uh let's segue into
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politics here let's get over to the iowa state house um laura you and i actually
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ventured slightly a couple blocks away from this state house to cover this event
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with attorney general brenna bird over at the des moines police department and i'm
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still trying to think through
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everything that was involved in this and i guess this is what i mean by this there
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were so she is and she announced this initiative where they will have playing cards
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and the playing cards will feature 52 unsolved cases in iowa from goes back a
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number of years here
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And they had some of the victims, family members who were at this event.
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And I couldn't help but think,
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some of them I've interviewed over the years because I had covered at least two of
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the cases that they featured.
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And I was trying to think what it's like to see your family member in a playing card.
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The Attorney General talked about they've had successes in a couple other states,
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including Connecticut,
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where you put these things out,
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and primarily it goes to jails and prisons and that,
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and the folks there may have heard about some crime,
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and maybe they have a little nugget that can...
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that can perhaps solve a crime and they claim in Connecticut they've had success.
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But what did you make of the whole event?
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I mean, it's an interesting idea if it's a way at all to possibly get that clue to solve these.
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I thought it was an odd event.
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The cold case unit is something Brenda Byrd has really talked about a lot that was
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created last year,
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and now it's fully staffed,
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and they are working through more than 400 cold cases,
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and they selected,
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as you said,
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52 for these playing cards.
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I asked about how can Iowans...
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see these cards.
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And they're not really for public distribution.
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They're going to be distributed in jails,
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prisons,
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where they think people might know something or know somebody who knows something
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about one of these cases.
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And I do understand the concept of it,
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but I was talking with someone yesterday who questioned,
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you know,
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why did she do a press conference about this?
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It's not, they're not available to the public.
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And it seemed
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kind of like promoting herself and her role.
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This is something that they could do quietly.
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It didn't need to be in a press conference.
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And I think obviously a lot of reporters were there wanting to ask her about some other things.
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I had questions not even necessarily related to the governor's race,
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but I had questions about other initiatives
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in her office that we weren't able to ask about because they wanted to keep things
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only on the topic of the cold cases and these playing cards.
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So in that sense,
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I always think it's unfortunate when a public official has a press conference and
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then they don't take any questions afterwards.
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About anything other than she did take questions about.
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Yes, I'm sorry about about other topics.
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Yes.
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Kathy, what did you make of it?
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Well,
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I when I first heard that she was doing playing cards,
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I my first thought was that it was going to be like,
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remember,
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during the during the Iraq war,
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you know,
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there were playing cards with the most wanted terrorists.
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Mm hmm.
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And different people distributed that to the public.
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So I thought it was going to be something like that.
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And then when I heard it was just going to jails and prisons, like, what is the point of that?
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But yeah,
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I mean,
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I get that that might shake some thought loose from somebody that might be helpful
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to the case.
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And it's kind of a gimmick, I guess.
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But I do agree that the press conference itself was probably a self-promotional
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thing for somebody who you know maybe possibly thinking about running for higher
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office and it it always gets so challenging because i think we're gonna we're gonna
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be respectful of their requests there i mean they did have family members in the
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room and that is what staff had asked and the attorney general had asked as well
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tonight you know to to keep it focused on the topic when governor reynolds does
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something like that typically
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She will do on topic questions first they dismiss the guests and then there'll be
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some kind of gaggle or some kind of availability that we have that we can ask that
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now the governor hasn't done a lot last couple of months necessarily but but.
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That's kind of a way that you can do both things.
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That's what Brenna Byrd did when she announced the cold case unit last June or July.
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I think it was in June, but she had an event.
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It was at the Polk County Sheriff's Department.
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They had a bunch of people there from law enforcement and they may have even had
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some family members there.
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And then all of those people left the room and she did take a few questions from reporters.
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So there was really no reason they couldn't have set it up that way.
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So we did not get to talk about kind of the elephant in the room,
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the political elephant in the room,
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but she has she's made a few comments publicly about.
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As she and her husband are thinking about whether they're going to move forward
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with this gubernatorial campaign so.
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Well,
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I had questions about other issues related to her work as Attorney General that I
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wasn't able to ask,
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so she doesn't have very many press availabilities.
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Not lately.
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OK, this this constitutional amendment that she has wanted.
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So essentially this would and I'm a law and order junkie and have been forever.
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I watched Law and Order SVU.
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I think I've seen literally every episode of that.
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And for those who are watching, listening to this, I hope you share my
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My hope that one day Captain Benson can retire,
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get married and enjoy a peaceful life with no more drama because she's been through
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so much.
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But I digress.
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But because of that show, I couldn't help but think about that kind of goes through my mind.
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And this whole constitutional amendment idea is that when you have.
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Child victims, they don't have to sit in the courtroom and face their accuser.
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They could do it remotely or it could be for children with intellectual limitations.
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But this gets pretty complex legally and uncertain.
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Kathy, do you want to lead us off?
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I know Laura is the the the legal junkie here.
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But I mean, this stems out of a Supreme Court ruling where the
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the person who was convicted challenged the fact that a child victim was not in the
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courtroom and the Supreme Court,
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in fact,
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ruled in his favor.
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And it really upended, you know, Iowa's longtime judicial practice to be able to allow
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child victims.
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And I don't know if,
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Laura,
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you may know if other like adults with developmental disabilities or other victims
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also were allowed to testify remotely.
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But I mean,
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I think this is a pretty bipartisan,
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fully bipartisan initiative in looking to amend the Constitution basically to make
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it clear that child victims can
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with the court's permission,
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testify remotely and that it does not affect the defendant's right to confront his
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or her accuser.
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Yeah, that's what makes it interesting to me to kind of tee it up to you, Laura.
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Kathy's point about it does feel like something like this would get bipartisan support.
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to protect these children after what they've already been through,
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then the legal question of this is,
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is this legal to do?
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Is it constitutional?
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Well,
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the constitutional,
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the Supreme Court ruling from last summer got overshadowed because it was issued
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the same day as the ruling that allowed the state to enforce the abortion ban,
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which obviously was like one of the stories of the decade.
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And it was the same split.
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It was the same four,
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three split with the same four and the majority and the same three dissenting from
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the ruling that said,
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and it was grounded.
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It was similar legal reasoning because it was grounded in this idea of originalism
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that we have to go back to what the framers
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of the Iowa Constitution,
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we're thinking about in the 1850s,
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60s,
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70s,
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and citing some historical examples of when children were called to testify.
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And in the dissent by the Chief Justice Christensen was really striking,
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saying,
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you know,
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this is like the kind of crime that wouldn't have been prosecuted in the 1850s that
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I mean,
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this kind of technology that would allow somebody to testify remotely wasn't
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something that anybody could have imagined in the 18...
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So it's of little use to look at these cases from the 1850s,
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60s,
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and 70s.
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But in any case, because it was a ruling grounded in an interpretation of the Iowa Constitution,
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that's why you would need a constitutional amendment to overcome that you can't
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just pass a law that says oh you know the legislature says it's okay for children
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or and some adults with intellectual disabilities to testify remotely so it i mean
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it did get bipartisan support it passed unanimously in the senate and it passed
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in the House with only six opposing votes, three from each party.
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And some people,
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one of the no votes,
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Charlie Thompson,
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a Republican who's also an attorney,
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spoke and he said he thinks the US Supreme Court may be about to revisit this issue
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where they have long ago rulings that said it was okay for children to testify remotely,
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but this constitutional right to confront your accuser in court is very important.
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So in any case, we're now,
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halfway through the process of getting it through the legislature,
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both the Iowa House and Senate approved this amendment.
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So now nothing's going to happen until after the next election.
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The next legislature would have to take this up again.
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And then if they pass it, it would go on the ballot.
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So it's going to take a number of years.
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There were Republicans in the House who preferred
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to try to pass a law to address this issue,
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and the Senate didn't pick it up,
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so it didn't get through the second funnel.
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I don't see how legally you can pass a law to address a Supreme Court ruling.
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To me, that would have to be done through a constitutional amendment.
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the the other thing that that went through the house thursday later than what we
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maybe originally thought uh the you know it was kind of called the baby olivia bill
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um for a while now it ends up it's not but so republicans and i i've wondered what
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they would do with this super majority in 2025 specifically when it comes to the
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issue of abortion right so you have fundamentally they you have a lot of the caucus
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that
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doesn't believe in any abortions or at least very very few instances of abortions
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and they have been in their minds protecting life and so this video that they want
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public school students to watch there is a baby olivia video that had a lot of the
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attention previously but that specific video
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is not this legislation but the concept of it is every child would watch this video
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and it shows you how a baby grows and it's supposed to bring dignity and
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essentially lets you know that this baby is a person the fetus is a person it it
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you know,
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behind the scenes,
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we were all wondering how this debate was gonna finally happen yesterday.
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But Laura, maybe start this off.
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Where is this now?
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And what did you make about how this came out?
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Well,
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Helena Hayes,
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who is the floor manager of the bill in the House,
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told me after the debate that this amendment...
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Of course,
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we had another last-minute amendment that wasn't vetted in any subcommittee or
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committee process,
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but she said this was negotiated with the Senate.
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So I think it's pretty likely the Senate is going to take this bill back up and
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pass this amended version.
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So the amendment...
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expands the grade levels.
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It was seven through 12.
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Now it's going to be grades five through 12 that they have to watch this video that
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has to have,
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it's very specific about the kinds of images that it has to have.
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And there are words in the bill about
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scientifically accurate and medically accurate, but those do not apply to the actual video.
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So I thought there was an interesting exchange yesterday during the debate.
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But the other thing they added with the amendment was that it says that schools
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could not use any materials produced by any entity that performs abortions or
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promotes abortions.
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And so obviously that was intended to prevent Planned Parenthood or some affiliated
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organization like Planned Parenthood
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from creating a video that would be scientifically accurate that would go through
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all the stages of fetal development.
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Because the big problem with this baby Olivia video from live action is that the
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way that the terminology is not,
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it's not what OBGYNs would use,
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the number of weeks,
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like when they say something happens at a certain number of weeks,
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it's not accurate.
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So that's one of the big problems.
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And so they've now
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prevented a group like Planned Parenthood from creating their own video and making
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that available to schools.
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But the problem is now,
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does that mean,
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as State Representative Austin Bathe raised during the debate,
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does that mean that information from Johns Hopkins or the Mayo Clinic,
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that those would not be allowed in Iowa schools because those
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are entities that perform abortions.
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But Helena Hayes told me afterwards that that wasn't the intention and that she
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doesn't think that those major hospital medical organizations promote abortions.
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So in any case, I mean, we'll see where it goes.
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But it sounded to me like the Senate is going to be willing to take this bill back
(00:18:07):
with this amendment and send it on to the governor.
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A few bills where lawmakers yesterday or Thursday were...
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you know, dictating kind of to K-12 schools what what their curriculum was going to be.
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The other one was this idea of having all high school students have to pass the
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same civics exam that a,
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you know,
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somebody who wants to be a naturalized citizen of the country would have to pass in
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order to be naturalized.
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And that's that idea has been slowly percolating through the legislature.
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At this,
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the interesting amendment that Democrats offered on the floor would have required
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all lawmakers to take the test and to have their scores posted in the House and
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Senate journal.
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So it essentially made public.
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And somebody was a little slow on the button.
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I think that they probably meant to question whether that amendment was germane.
(00:19:13):
But they didn't do it.
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And so they ended up actually having to vote that amendment down,
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which was a little bit of fun political theater for the day.
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I was going to say that citizenship exam requirement,
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that was actually a Governor Reynolds proposal from 2023.
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That was a piece of what later became Senate File 496 that had the school book bans,
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the don't say gay or trans from K through six.
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The wide-ranging education bill originally included that,
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and the House Republicans removed it through the process because it was seen as,
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I think,
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partly because it was an unfunded mandate on schools,
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but that this high-stakes exam new requirement for graduation wasn't going to be helpful.
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But apparently they've now come around to the idea that this is something they
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should impose on schools.
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That's a great
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government, American government class before I graduated from high school.
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I don't know if maybe that's not something that was statewide,
(00:20:10):
but it seemed like at least some of that requirement was already in place,
(00:20:14):
maybe not the specific naturalization exam.
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But I mean, there are a lot of concerns about that, too.
(00:20:21):
There are kids who are not, you know, they're intimidated by
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you know, giant 100 question, you know, multiple choice exams and that this might not be
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It might, you know, encourage people to drop out.
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You know, it just might not be a the best tool for teaching.
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I am all for teaching civics, you know, frankly.
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And and I do think that exposing students to the type of questions that would be
(00:20:54):
asked of a new immigrant is a good idea.
(00:20:56):
You know,
(00:20:57):
whether whether it's a good idea to condition graduation on passing an exam like that,
(00:21:02):
I really
(00:21:04):
you know, I do question that, so.
(00:21:07):
When you,
(00:21:07):
Kathy,
(00:21:08):
you used the word theater,
(00:21:09):
and,
(00:21:10):
you know,
(00:21:11):
I always point out that of the three of us,
(00:21:12):
I'm the shallow TV guy,
(00:21:14):
so I think a lot in those terms,
(00:21:16):
but so many times when I'm watching some of this legislative debate,
(00:21:21):
and some of it is for theater,
(00:21:22):
right,
(00:21:23):
you know,
(00:21:23):
some of it is the
(00:21:25):
I think they lose perspective about how many people are watching this from home sometimes.
(00:21:30):
But of course,
(00:21:31):
in this day and age,
(00:21:32):
you can always have some viral moment,
(00:21:33):
but I'd love to know kind of snap polling on what the general public thinks about
(00:21:41):
this stuff.
(00:21:42):
Like I would think,
(00:21:42):
I don't know if I'm right on this or not,
(00:21:44):
but I would think you can get the bulk of the people who would go for some kind of
(00:21:48):
civics requirement.
(00:21:49):
And if you sell it to them, like,
(00:21:52):
You know,
(00:21:52):
we need to have a basic level understanding of our government,
(00:21:56):
how it works,
(00:21:57):
both state and federal,
(00:21:59):
and we're requiring this of immigrants.
(00:22:01):
So, you know, our kids should have it all.
(00:22:04):
But if you put that question before them about that amendment that you brought up, Kathy,
(00:22:11):
I would think the bulk of Iowans would think, yeah, you know what?
(00:22:16):
If you want the responsibility and the privilege of representing me in the
(00:22:21):
legislature or in any office,
(00:22:23):
frankly,
(00:22:24):
I think you ought to pass it too.
(00:22:25):
And I would like to know what your score is.
(00:22:28):
Yeah.
(00:22:28):
I mean, I sort of what's good for the goose is good for the gander, right?
(00:22:32):
Uh,
(00:22:32):
you know,
(00:22:33):
it makes it that the feeling is that they think this is okay for other people and
(00:22:38):
not for them.
(00:22:39):
So,
(00:22:40):
I think Eleanor Levin,
(00:22:42):
the Democrat who offered that amendment,
(00:22:45):
said that it was the first amendment she's ever offered that wasn't called out for
(00:22:48):
not being germane.
(00:22:49):
And I agree with Kathy.
(00:22:50):
I had the impression that the floor manager was supposed to hit the button and
(00:22:54):
question the germaneness,
(00:22:55):
but he was slow on it.
(00:22:57):
But Representative Chad Ingalls,
(00:22:58):
who was a Republican and a former school board president,
(00:23:01):
and who was one of the Republicans who voted against that bill on final passage,
(00:23:05):
several did,
(00:23:06):
but he had proposed an amendment that he ended up withdrawing without putting it to
(00:23:10):
a vote that would have...
(00:23:12):
There already is a requirement for some kind of government or civics class that's a semester,
(00:23:18):
but his amendment would have increased that,
(00:23:21):
added a semester to that,
(00:23:23):
and added things that would actually get students more engaged in learning about
(00:23:28):
civics and government rather than just taking a test.
(00:23:32):
Sometimes I just,
(00:23:33):
I can't help but think,
(00:23:34):
so many of these arguments just come down so heavily partisan that,
(00:23:38):
you know,
(00:23:38):
you wonder if we could just take a couple of things and mash it all together,
(00:23:41):
and we might be better served if we took a little bit of this and a little bit of that.
(00:23:46):
Let's get outside the Statehouse.
(00:23:47):
We've got a lot of other Statehouse stuff,
(00:23:49):
and maybe we'll put a pin in a few of these until next week.
(00:23:53):
But we had a few announcements this week.
(00:23:56):
There's been so much speculation.
(00:23:58):
You already talked about Brenda Burt.
(00:23:59):
Is she going to run for governor?
(00:24:00):
Is she not?
(00:24:02):
But we have had some people who have definitively said this week, hey, I'm doing this.
(00:24:08):
Let's start with the congressional race.
(00:24:09):
We can just hit this very closely.
(00:24:11):
But up in the second congressional district,
(00:24:13):
Ashley Hinson,
(00:24:14):
who we assume will run for reelection,
(00:24:17):
the Republican,
(00:24:18):
the former TV anchor,
(00:24:20):
in Cedar Rapids if she doesn't run for governor, if she runs for reelection in that House seat.
(00:24:26):
But she now has a Democratic challenger, Kevin Tekow.
(00:24:29):
We have covered him in different ways over the years since he used to be a US attorney.
(00:24:35):
He was in the Air Force for a long time and
(00:24:38):
under i think it was vilsack he was the dps commissioner and he might have been in
(00:24:43):
inspection and appeals too was he there too i think he was public safety
(00:24:47):
commissioner yeah he did that i was thinking he did one other thing statewide i may
(00:24:52):
i may not right but i know he was dps commissioner
(00:24:55):
uh so he's gonna run uh and uh not i'm thinking about it i'm doing it uh i could
(00:25:01):
not find a launch video i don't know if there was one but i couldn't find one
(00:25:05):
yesterday i don't get on the shallow tv guys i'm trying to see how they're gonna
(00:25:09):
message
(00:25:10):
i don't think there was one i i interviewed him on zoom i think there was just the
(00:25:15):
announcement and the press release and his facebook page he did file paperwork with
(00:25:20):
the fec but i think that this is going to be a really interesting race the
(00:25:24):
democratic congressional campaign committee didn't target iowa's second district
(00:25:28):
this is covering most of the northeastern part of the state did not target that
(00:25:32):
last election but have said that they will do so now and ashley henson
(00:25:37):
is a good fundraiser.
(00:25:38):
She did outperform Donald Trump in this part of the state.
(00:25:41):
But for Democrats to have a candidate who has a long history of working in that
(00:25:47):
area of the state,
(00:25:48):
he was the U.S.
(00:25:49):
Attorney for the Northern District of Iowa under Barack Obama.
(00:25:53):
And he also has lived,
(00:25:55):
he told me that,
(00:25:56):
I think he said he was born in Mason City,
(00:25:57):
but he's also lived in the Dubuque area,
(00:25:59):
lived in Marion,
(00:26:00):
a suburb of Cedar Rapids,
(00:26:02):
has lived in Cedar Rapids for a number of years.
(00:26:04):
So
(00:26:05):
I think it's going to be a really interesting race.
(00:26:07):
And Ashley Hinson,
(00:26:08):
yes,
(00:26:08):
I do assume she's going to run for re-election,
(00:26:11):
but I also think it's very likely she'll run for Chuck Grassley's U.S.
(00:26:14):
Senate seat in 2028.
(00:26:15):
Unless he runs again.
(00:26:18):
Right.
(00:26:19):
At the age of 95.
(00:26:22):
So this second congressional district in the next cycle could be an open seat.
(00:26:26):
And we've seen a lot of people elected to Congress on their second try.
(00:26:29):
So I think for somebody like Kevin Teckow,
(00:26:32):
if he has a good showing against Ashley Hinson,
(00:26:34):
we may even see him run again.
(00:26:36):
But if it's a great year for Democrats,
(00:26:38):
I mean,
(00:26:38):
the second district is Republican leaning,
(00:26:40):
but it's not overwhelmingly,
(00:26:42):
it's not like the fourth district.
(00:26:44):
It's definitely a district that in a wave election for Democrats is one Republicans
(00:26:49):
could conceivably lose.
(00:26:50):
Kathy, Hinson won by about 15, I think, in 2024.
(00:26:54):
What do you watch to see if Democrats are truly going to get involved in this race?
(00:27:02):
Because when you look at the numbers,
(00:27:04):
you would think,
(00:27:04):
oh,
(00:27:05):
this should be reasonably competitive here,
(00:27:07):
right?
(00:27:07):
It totally was not this last cycle.
(00:27:10):
And Democrats largely did not help Sarah Corkery at all.
(00:27:13):
Yeah, I mean, it's a different kind of year.
(00:27:16):
It's an off year.
(00:27:18):
The president's party often does not do as well in congressional and Senate races
(00:27:25):
in the off year.
(00:27:27):
So,
(00:27:27):
you know,
(00:27:28):
you take some of those,
(00:27:29):
again,
(00:27:31):
kind of lopsided results,
(00:27:33):
and you might really,
(00:27:34):
you know,
(00:27:35):
if you have a real candidate,
(00:27:36):
you might really expect those to be a little bit closer.
(00:27:39):
You know, frankly, I'd be a lot more worried if I were
(00:27:42):
Marionette Miller-Meeks or Zach Nunn than Ashley Henson might be.
(00:27:47):
But Kevin Tekka, at least on paper, is a really solid candidate.
(00:27:53):
And the law enforcement background,
(00:27:57):
the military background,
(00:28:00):
I do think that he brings something to the table that we haven't seen up against
(00:28:05):
Ashley Henson.
(00:28:07):
And he could, in fact, be a candidate who could appeal to people
(00:28:11):
on both sides of the aisle,
(00:28:12):
potentially,
(00:28:13):
or at least,
(00:28:14):
you know,
(00:28:15):
at least to sort of middle of the road and,
(00:28:18):
you know,
(00:28:19):
maybe it's slightly right leaning independence.
(00:28:22):
So so I do think that he's got it's interesting to me.
(00:28:25):
I mean, I hadn't heard the name Kevin Takao for years.
(00:28:30):
I mean, he used to be like, you know, like we said, all over state government, et cetera.
(00:28:34):
And, you know, as a U.S.
(00:28:35):
attorney, and I just we haven't really heard much from him.
(00:28:38):
um in the meantime so it'll be interesting to see you know sort of what he's been
(00:28:42):
up to uh to steal a few of the lines you just said about techos campaign I would
(00:28:48):
use that for Nathan Sage so he is the first Democrat to announce that he is running
(00:28:54):
in this U.S.
(00:28:55):
Senate race so this would be Joni Ernst's seat next year and she already said last
(00:28:59):
year that she would run there's been no formal formal declaration uh if she's
(00:29:04):
planning to do that but so Nathan Sage
(00:29:08):
was essentially recruited from this.
(00:29:10):
He was an independent, so he's only recently labeled himself a Democrat.
(00:29:16):
He was deployed to Iraq three different times.
(00:29:21):
He's been a mechanic.
(00:29:22):
He was a journalist.
(00:29:24):
He did news and sports in Knoxville.
(00:29:27):
Now he's the executive director of the Chamber of Commerce.
(00:29:32):
And I need to learn technology better so we can play this ad in the podcast.
(00:29:37):
So we're going to have to add a link to it.
(00:29:39):
But the ad, and again, it's video, so of course...
(00:29:42):
You know, my shallow brain is fascinated by it, but his launch video is interesting to me.
(00:29:48):
And I joked about this when I was doing some live shots for our TV station group
(00:29:52):
for Gray that I said,
(00:29:55):
you know,
(00:29:56):
I showed you a clip of this video.
(00:29:58):
I can't play the whole thing.
(00:29:59):
Not that we'd play the whole thing anyway.
(00:30:01):
But,
(00:30:01):
you know,
(00:30:01):
there are some words in there that our kids would get in trouble if they use them
(00:30:04):
at school.
(00:30:05):
Right.
(00:30:06):
And.
(00:30:07):
You know,
(00:30:07):
that's one of the things like with Trump,
(00:30:09):
you know,
(00:30:09):
he stands up there at an event,
(00:30:10):
cusses and stuff,
(00:30:11):
and we're not used to seeing that.
(00:30:13):
His people dig it.
(00:30:14):
They're all about it.
(00:30:15):
And we're seeing a few Democrats maybe.
(00:30:19):
I mean, they're not dropping the F-bomb perhaps, but maybe some of them are.
(00:30:24):
But this ad by Nathan Sage,
(00:30:26):
you know,
(00:30:27):
it's got a few words in there,
(00:30:28):
and not to be all prudish,
(00:30:29):
but we're just not used to seeing that,
(00:30:31):
right?
(00:30:31):
I'm curious what you both thought of, because he did have a video.
(00:30:34):
So what do you,
(00:30:35):
this whole,
(00:30:36):
this whole idea of basically kind of an independent there,
(00:30:40):
military background,
(00:30:42):
using some of the same themes maybe Joni Ernst,
(00:30:44):
without the cussing,
(00:30:46):
used when she launched herself on this statewide effort in 2014.
(00:30:49):
What did you both make of this launch?
(00:30:54):
So, first of all, the profanity in the in the video, it's attention getting.
(00:30:59):
It's memorable.
(00:31:00):
It does reinforce what I think is what he's trying to get across, that he is a working man.
(00:31:06):
He's an he's an everyman, you know, somebody who people in rural Iowa could really relate to.
(00:31:15):
He doesn't talk about real issues in the video.
(00:31:18):
It's more about how,
(00:31:20):
you know,
(00:31:20):
his persona is,
(00:31:23):
you know,
(00:31:23):
where he's somebody who's going to work for you and not the elite,
(00:31:27):
you know,
(00:31:27):
Joni Ernst.
(00:31:29):
And I did think that was interesting because when Joni Ernst,
(00:31:32):
of course,
(00:31:32):
when it was first running,
(00:31:35):
she was doing kind of that that same thing,
(00:31:38):
talking about how she was a small town girl who
(00:31:43):
you know,
(00:31:43):
likes to shoot guns and ride motorcycles and,
(00:31:46):
you know,
(00:31:46):
that she's an,
(00:31:47):
you know,
(00:31:47):
an every person type of persona as well.
(00:31:51):
So it is interesting that Nathan Sage is bringing that theme back.
(00:31:55):
I do want to mention he was really recruited to run by the same people who backed
(00:32:02):
Dan Osborne in Nebraska,
(00:32:04):
the independent candidate who came pretty darn close to knocking off Deb Fischer,
(00:32:09):
Republican for Senate.
(00:32:12):
And they were there were sort of hoping to recreate the magic and Iowa went went
(00:32:17):
looking for it.
(00:32:18):
Really,
(00:32:18):
I think they initially really wanted an independent,
(00:32:21):
decided that Nathan Sage had been an independent recently enough for them.
(00:32:27):
He didn't.
(00:32:28):
I don't think he switched parties just to run as a Democrat.
(00:32:32):
But but I do think that that that is interesting.
(00:32:35):
You know, it'll be interesting to see if they can raise enough money for him to be competitive.
(00:32:40):
And of course,
(00:32:40):
I do expect, I think we all expect there will be more Democrats in that race.
(00:32:46):
Our colleague in the Iowa Writers Collaborative,
(00:32:48):
Dr.
(00:32:49):
Bob Leonard,
(00:32:50):
wrote a post about this at Deep Midwest,
(00:32:52):
his Substack newsletter,
(00:32:53):
where he talked about the people who were consultants for Dan Osborne's campaign
(00:32:58):
basically came to him in December and asked him,
(00:33:00):
did he know of a veteran who was a working class guy,
(00:33:04):
a registered independent who might want to run against Joni Ernst?
(00:33:07):
And,
(00:33:07):
I mean,
(00:33:08):
the thing about that Dan Osborne's race against Deb Fischer is that it almost
(00:33:13):
worked because there was no Democratic candidate.
(00:33:15):
So the math,
(00:33:16):
I mean,
(00:33:17):
I think you can argue about whether that would be possible to recreate that in Iowa anyway,
(00:33:21):
but it certainly wouldn't work.
(00:33:23):
if there is a Democratic nominee, right?
(00:33:25):
It only works even theoretically if the Democrats take a pass on the race.
(00:33:29):
And so when it became clear that Democrats are not going to take a pass on the race
(00:33:34):
and that at least somebody is going to step up and run against Joni Ernst as a Democrat,
(00:33:39):
then it became necessary for Nathan Sage,
(00:33:42):
I think,
(00:33:42):
to run in the Democratic primary because otherwise there's no path.
(00:33:45):
And I'm very interested to see how it'll shake out.
(00:33:48):
And I feel that Joni Ernst is heavily favored to win re-election.
(00:33:51):
The last U.S.
(00:33:52):
senator from Iowa who didn't win re-election was Roger Jepsen, who lost to Tom Harkin in 1984.
(00:33:58):
So we have a history of re-electing incumbents to the U.S.
(00:34:01):
Senate, but should be an interesting Democratic primary.
(00:34:05):
Are you guys surprised that she hasn't drawn a Republican primary?
(00:34:10):
you know, a serious Republican primary opponent at this point.
(00:34:14):
I mean,
(00:34:15):
the the the MAGA right was really upset with her about her sort of hanging back on
(00:34:22):
Pete Hegs' nomination and confirmation.
(00:34:27):
And, you know, of course, she
(00:34:29):
ultimately voted for him,
(00:34:31):
but she was reluctant,
(00:34:33):
frankly,
(00:34:34):
and let it be known that she had concerns and questions.
(00:34:38):
And then there started to be,
(00:34:40):
you know,
(00:34:40):
especially in the conservative media and other places,
(00:34:45):
and I thought there was even a guy,
(00:34:48):
Laura,
(00:34:48):
you might remember,
(00:34:49):
there was a guy who said he was going to run,
(00:34:51):
and we haven't heard anything from him since.
(00:34:52):
But
(00:34:53):
Well, he launched a digital ad, Joshua Smith.
(00:34:55):
I mean,
(00:34:56):
he's a former libertarian,
(00:34:57):
but Jim Carlin,
(00:34:59):
who ran against Chuck Grassley in the 2022 primary,
(00:35:02):
he filed paperwork with the FEC earlier this year.
(00:35:04):
And I reached out to him a few times to say, are you running against Joni Ernst?
(00:35:09):
But he didn't get back to me.
(00:35:10):
But I think he is clearly thinking about it, at least seriously enough to file paperwork.
(00:35:15):
But
(00:35:16):
So to beat Joni Ernst in a primary would be a pretty tall order.
(00:35:20):
You would probably need a lot of money and support from Donald Trump or Elon Musk.
(00:35:25):
And right now,
(00:35:25):
I don't think Joni Ernst is giving Trump or Musk any reason to endorse a challenger.
(00:35:30):
So who knows?
(00:35:31):
And correct me if I'm wrong,
(00:35:32):
but when the Hegseth situation was going on and she initially said she wanted a
(00:35:39):
vetting of this,
(00:35:41):
which would be her job and her right as a senator to do that before the
(00:35:45):
confirmation hearing,
(00:35:46):
didn't elon musk tweet or x or whatever you do on that platform now didn't he
(00:35:55):
didn't he talk about her isn't that where some of this was planted and the and
(00:36:00):
putting out money to back at challenger wasn't well part of that well many people
(00:36:05):
were
(00:36:06):
talking about that.
(00:36:08):
I don't know that he tweeted about it,
(00:36:10):
but a huge number of conservative influencers on X in that first week in December.
(00:36:16):
She was the focus of a lot of, I don't even know, verbally abusive
(00:36:22):
I mean, just a lot of very hostile posts.
(00:36:24):
And it's so interesting to me because I see Joni Ernst as someone who never
(00:36:29):
seriously challenged Donald Trump in any way.
(00:36:31):
I mean,
(00:36:31):
she didn't endorse Trump before the 2024 caucuses,
(00:36:35):
but as a senator,
(00:36:36):
she never got in Trump's way.
(00:36:38):
And yet to see the hatred that some of these MAGA people have for her,
(00:36:43):
I mean,
(00:36:44):
I'm just trying to remember Charlie Kirk,
(00:36:46):
Benny Johnson,
(00:36:47):
there were a lot of people,
(00:36:48):
there were people calling for Carrie Lake to
(00:36:50):
Possibly Iowa had Carrie Lake had that event that welcome back to Iowa thing or
(00:36:57):
whatever that was initially scheduled and then they canceled it.
(00:37:01):
Like that's what the undercurrent you were wondering already she going to come here
(00:37:05):
and at least plant the seed to run against Ernst.
(00:37:08):
I mean,
(00:37:08):
it would take,
(00:37:09):
like I said,
(00:37:11):
to be Joni Ernst,
(00:37:12):
it would take a Donald Trump,
(00:37:15):
Elon Musk direct assault.
(00:37:17):
And I don't see any sign that that's going to happen.
(00:37:19):
But I do expect that somebody will file against her in the Republican primary.
(00:37:24):
And Jim Carlin, after raising almost no money, got a quarter of the vote against Chuck Grassley.
(00:37:31):
So, I mean, there are clearly going to be some MAGA people who aren't happy with Joni Ernst.
(00:37:37):
She has made a lot of moves.
(00:37:38):
I mean, she's the chair of the Senate Doge Caucus.
(00:37:42):
She is constantly both on the floor making videos talking about Doge.
(00:37:49):
She's been to Mar-a-Lago.
(00:37:52):
It seems like she is,
(00:37:53):
you know,
(00:37:53):
for all the chatter about Kim Reynolds really working over the past year to repair
(00:37:58):
that relationship,
(00:37:59):
I think we can,
(00:38:00):
we might argue that Joni Ernst has done even more to try to get into the,
(00:38:07):
maybe not good graces,
(00:38:08):
but less bad graces of both Musk and Trump,
(00:38:12):
right?
(00:38:12):
I mean, she's positioned herself a lot with that.
(00:38:16):
Yeah, it really is consistent with the campaign theme that she's always run, which is
(00:38:22):
you know, trying to cut the budget.
(00:38:25):
I mean, that was the whole theme behind the make them squeal, which was a brilliant ad.
(00:38:31):
Yeah.
(00:38:32):
And so I do think that she's that that is consistent with what she's run against.
(00:38:37):
It's it's it may also be,
(00:38:41):
you know,
(00:38:41):
a sort of a CYA to try to protect herself from,
(00:38:47):
you know,
(00:38:48):
an attack from the Trump administration as well.
(00:38:51):
I want to remind people that Joni Ernst,
(00:38:53):
although,
(00:38:54):
as I just said,
(00:38:55):
that when Trump was president,
(00:38:57):
she didn't get in his way on anything.
(00:38:58):
But before the Iowa caucuses, she introduced Nikki Haley in an event.
(00:39:03):
She didn't endorse anybody, but she said things that were very positive about Nikki Haley.
(00:39:09):
And then whereas a number of Iowa Republicans,
(00:39:12):
including Ashley Henson,
(00:39:13):
Marionette Miller-Meeks,
(00:39:15):
Kim Reynolds,
(00:39:16):
got on board with Trump very soon after the Iowa caucuses,
(00:39:20):
almost immediately after the Iowa caucuses.
(00:39:23):
Joni Ernst did not endorse Donald Trump until the day after Super Tuesday last March,
(00:39:28):
which was the day Nikki Haley dropped out.
(00:39:30):
So I think that was the part of it that the Trump people really couldn't forgive.
(00:39:34):
And I think that's why she's been working so hard to get back into his good graces.
(00:39:40):
Two points of that.
(00:39:41):
I agree with that.
(00:39:42):
Remember,
(00:39:44):
she also,
(00:39:44):
years back,
(00:39:46):
let him know that she was not interested in being his VP for Trump 1.0.
(00:39:52):
We don't know exactly the details, perhaps, of that conversation.
(00:39:55):
I wish we had video of that.
(00:39:58):
And I'm also reminded during the caucus cycle,
(00:40:01):
while she never endorsed anybody,
(00:40:03):
and to all the points you make about,
(00:40:05):
you know,
(00:40:05):
she did the event with Nikki Haley,
(00:40:07):
and I remember being at that one.
(00:40:09):
I remember when I interviewed her one time,
(00:40:11):
she pretty strongly defended Kim Reynolds when Trump was eviscerating her.
(00:40:19):
for supporting DeSantis.
(00:40:21):
And I can't help but just think of those incidents.
(00:40:24):
And Trump just doesn't seem like a forgive and forget kind of guy.
(00:40:30):
So it's hard to not think that she could still face a far right challenger,
(00:40:35):
whether it's Carlin or somebody at some point.
(00:40:38):
But it seems like she's done an awful lot to try to protect that right side.
(00:40:43):
Unlike Marinette Miller-Meeks, who has also probably tried to
(00:40:48):
to keep some kind of relationship with the MAGA side of the party,
(00:40:52):
but she has David Pouch running against her again.
(00:40:54):
And he raised all of $8,000 in the first quarter.
(00:40:59):
Yeah, but a long way to go.
(00:41:01):
No doubt money was, but he got within 10 points of her in the primary.
(00:41:04):
Absolutely.
(00:41:05):
No, I mean, she's vulnerable in the primary.
(00:41:07):
Miller Meeks is for sure.
(00:41:09):
She couldn't get 60% of the vote against somebody who raised almost no money.
(00:41:13):
So she absolutely could lose a primary.
(00:41:15):
All right, let's put a bowl on this.
(00:41:17):
What are you working on for the weekend?
(00:41:19):
Kathy, what do you got going on?
(00:41:20):
You've got big family plans too,
(00:41:22):
so you're going to have a tight schedule,
(00:41:24):
but what should we expect?
(00:41:26):
Yeah, so we are, you know, again, we'll be back at the legislature.
(00:41:33):
I really were to the point in the session where
(00:41:36):
We're watching closely on any tax.
(00:41:40):
And we're still waiting for the Republicans in the House to send us their budget targets.
(00:41:47):
It's unusual, really, that the Senate has theirs out weeks before.
(00:41:52):
And it makes me wonder what the holdup is in the House.
(00:41:57):
And of course,
(00:41:59):
we're self-interested in that because the sooner they get the budget done,
(00:42:03):
the sooner they will go home.
(00:42:06):
so so hoping hoping for that um you know i do think um we're gonna continue to see
(00:42:14):
also a lot more uh election movement here in the next couple of weeks and and
(00:42:20):
especially as the as the senate i mean as the legislature winds down um we
(00:42:25):
typically are going to see a lot more of the 2026 candidates showing their cards
(00:42:31):
I'm working on a first look at Kevin Tecau versus Ashley Henson,
(00:42:35):
but not just about his background and what he said in the interview that I did with
(00:42:40):
him yesterday,
(00:42:40):
but looking at that first district and kind of my deep dive that I like to do with
(00:42:45):
looking at the county level results and how some of those counties in Northeast
(00:42:49):
Iowa have had some of the biggest swings in the country from Obama to Trump.
(00:42:54):
And so what he would need to do to put together a winning coalition in that district.
(00:43:00):
John Kane- yeah Kathy you talked about when the legislature wraps up i'm
(00:43:04):
particularly interested in once that's done.
(00:43:06):
John Kane- These democratic legislators,
(00:43:08):
who are looking at both the third Congressional district and the US Senate race on
(00:43:14):
the democratic side if we're going to see.
(00:43:15):
John Kane- it's hard to see how they're all going to run but surely a few of them
(00:43:19):
are pretty serious and have made some strong behind the scenes moves to kind of
(00:43:24):
prepare for this.
(00:43:26):
We think so,
(00:43:27):
and where I,
(00:43:28):
you know,
(00:43:28):
I do think that we may have some people who started off thinking about one race and
(00:43:33):
may end up in another one.
(00:43:35):
Doing another one.
(00:43:36):
Exactly.
(00:43:37):
I'm going to,
(00:43:37):
I think I'm going to write about that event that Laura and I went to the Brenna
(00:43:42):
Byrd event with the playing cards over at the Des Moines Police Department,
(00:43:47):
just because it was fascinating me for a bunch of ways,
(00:43:49):
then I can't help it.
(00:43:50):
Obviously, we have a personal connection since we were so close to where that murder happened.
(00:43:55):
all those years ago.
(00:43:57):
All right, let's wrap this up for this week.
(00:43:59):
Clearly,
(00:43:59):
we got a lot to talk about to see what the heck happens with the legislature in the
(00:44:03):
final weeks.
(00:44:04):
No budget targets before Easter, and Easter was late this year.
(00:44:07):
So 2025, not a typical year.
(00:44:10):
Thanks,
(00:44:11):
everybody,
(00:44:12):
for joining us for the Iowa Down Ballot podcast,
(00:44:15):
a production from the Iowa Writers Collaborative.
(00:44:18):
We will be coming back to you next week.
(00:44:20):
We want to thank our producers, Spencer Dirks,
(00:44:23):
And thank Dartanyan Brown for the music you hear on this podcast.
(00:44:27):
Thanks for your support, as always, for the Iowa Writers Collaborative.
(00:44:31):
I hope you will check out all of our contributors and see some of the latest work
(00:44:36):
and financially support them if you can.
(00:44:39):
We'll see you next week.
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