We started with the Cook Political Report’s new ratings: the U.S. Senate race moved from Leans Republican to Toss-Up, and the governor’s race moved from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat. We talked about why. Tight polling, a president underwater in approval, gas prices topping four bucks, and Iowa’s history of electing Democratic governors in red states even when it won’t send them to the Senate. We also noted how many Republican candidates went negative on their opponents at the soapbox this year, which we read as a sign of real nervousness in the party.
Then we got into the sheer number of Trump administration officials who came through Iowa this week. We counted at least nine cabinet secretaries, including Pete Hegseth, Scott Bessent, RFK Jr., and Brooke Rollins. Hegseth’s visit stood out most: no public schedule, a rare appearance for him, and a campaign fundraiser for Zach Nunn that Pentagon guidelines normally wouldn’t allow for a Senate-confirmed official. We debated who ends up paying for that kind of travel and what message it sends about how worried the administration is about Iowa’s races.
We closed out with our soapbox moments: the Libertarians’ ongoing ballot fight and court hearing, and Turning Point USA activists trailing Rob Sand, Josh Turek, and Mark Kelly around the fairgrounds, something none of us had seen at the fair before.
We’ll be back next week to see how the final 48 hours of the fair played out.
Want to sharpen your writing and get the inside scoop on Iowa politics at the same time? Join us September 27-30 at the Okoboji Writers’ & Songwriters’ Retreat on beautiful West Lake Okoboji, featuring Iowa Down Ballot analysts Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. They’ll walk you through finding public information, getting your opinion pieces published, and plenty more. Spots are limited, so scan the QR code at the beginning and end of the video or head to okobojiwritersretreat.com to sign up. If you’d like to make a donation to help the Iowa Writer’s Collaborative which supports this show please click the button below. Thanks!
Auto-generated transcript below:
Dave Price: Hi, everybody, and welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. We are talking to you on the final Friday morning of the Iowa State Fair. I’m Dave Price, joined by Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. Hello, ladies, how are you?
Kathie Obradovich: Hello, happy Friday!
Dave Price: Happy Friday — and happy Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, to all of you, whenever you’re listening to this podcast, the final Friday of the Iowa State Fair. Much to talk about.
I wonder if we can talk first about the Cook Political Report. I was talking to somebody — this would’ve been Thursday, I think — at the fair about this. Cook Political Report looks at all these races across the country, obviously, and it shifted both the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race toward Democrats.
As we know, Republicans have been the dominant party in our state for more than a decade. We’ve also talked early in this podcast about the new wildcards in 2026 — for the first time since ‘68, I believe, both of those races are open seats. So in theory, anything goes, although I feel like I’ve brought this up a half dozen times: Laura’s post six months ago now, showing the registration numbers — the difference between Republicans and Democrats — while it’s narrowed, you’re still looking at, what, 180-some thousand?
What’s the difference?
Laura Belin: I think it’s closer to 170,000 now. Pretty big Republican advantage.
Dave Price: That’s a big ol’ gap. Okay, let’s talk about this shift. Kathie, why don’t you lead us off? And appreciate — this is just a forecast, and we tread carefully on polls and speculation. But as Cook is looking at this, they’re clearly looking at the atmosphere and what’s going on. So how potentially significant is this, for a party that still has sizable advantages like Republicans do, to now almost be at a disadvantage in a couple of these prominent races?
Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, so first of all, I think this reflects what we’ve been seeing here — these races are tight. These forecasts are based largely on polling, I’d argue, although there are certainly other factors that go into it. The U.S. Senate race moved from Leans Republican to Toss-Up. And again, we talked about the Emerson poll a couple weeks ago — it was a two-point race between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek. By most definitions, I’d call that a toss-up.
And then the governor’s race moved from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat, which again I think is reflective of that same Emerson poll — Rob Sand had a five-point lead, so it seemed weird that we were still calling it a toss-up and not Leans Democrat. You guys may disagree, but I think this is reflective of the national climate — we continue to see dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. He’s underwater in polls in Iowa and around the country. We continue to see economic angst among the population. All of that, piled on top of the fact that the president’s party typically does poorly in the midterms — I think that builds a case, separate from anything going on in Iowa specifically.
Having said that, it’s August.
Dave Price: Yes.
Kathie Obradovich: A lot, a lot can happen.
Laura Belin: I think one thing it underscores — and we’ve talked about this before — is that in a red state, voters are more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than to the U.S. Senate. That’s why we have Democratic governors in Kansas, Kentucky, and recently had one in Louisiana. So I think what everyone agrees on is that Rob Sand has a better chance than Josh Turek, regardless of the climate.
But I was struck by Ashley Hinson’s speech on the soapbox Monday — she went hard negative on Turek before she even talked about her own record. Sometimes candidates talk about their own record first and then criticize the opponent, but she did the negative part first, which normally you wouldn’t do when you’re feeling comfortable about the race. Brenna Bird also went negative on her opponent in her soapbox speech. And I saw that Sabato’s Crystal Ball just moved the Iowa Attorney General race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig also went negative on his opponent. So it does seem that Iowa Republicans are feeling pretty concerned about this election cycle.
Dave Price: Kathie, you said maybe we disagree — I don’t. I think all the things you pointed out... and, I love a bunch of things about the Iowa State Fair, but not how you feel afterward, when you’re like, “dang, it’s gonna take me three months to walk off this weight.” That aside — it’s such a good place. For years, when I was at my old TV station, we had our Cast Your Colonel booth, where people could drop a kernel of corn in whichever candidate’s jar they supported. Not a scientific measure, but the benefit for me was more the one-on-one conversations — who do you like, what’s going on in your life. We’d get 60,000 people stop by. I don’t have the corn anymore, but I’ve been at the fair a bunch of times already this year, and this is only anecdotal, so asterisk everything I’m about to say:
I can’t think of one person I saw wearing a Trump hat. “Trump ‘28,” Trump-Vance shirts, whatever. I’m not saying he doesn’t have supporters there — of course he does — but I do wonder if people are starting to tire of some of this. I felt this in ‘16 — he beat Hillary Clinton, and toward the end you saw people, including some Republicans, get tired of the chaos. Maybe it’s magnified this time, and then there’s the economic piece — we were driving to the fair the other day when gas by our house topped four bucks. We’re six months into this, and forget the politics — people notice that. Four bucks is a mental threshold.
And for people paying attention: the president originally said this wouldn’t even last a couple of weeks. Well, we’re six months in, so you’ve been paying higher prices for six months. I really think that wears on people.
Kathie Obradovich: And it’s interesting, Dave — the State Fair isn’t cheap entertainment. You’ve got to pay for tickets, the food’s expensive. So if people who can afford to go to the fair are feeling the economic hit, that tells you something about the rest of the population. People who can afford the fair typically have money to pay $13 for a beer at an Asleep at the Wheel concert, which is what I paid on Wednesday night. And that was at the free stage, country night — I didn’t see any MAGA hats there either, and I was looking for them. So, interesting.
Laura Belin: I typically park on Grand Avenue and walk in through the Grand Concourse entrance, and there’s a guy who sometimes sets up near the shuttle drop-off on Grand, near 30th, selling MAGA-type gear. I noticed the hats he’s pushing this year say things like “USA,” maybe “45” and “47” on the side — but he’s not really pushing Trump 2028 or Trump-Vance merchandise. One day as I was walking out, I asked him how business was, and compared to last year. He said about the same. But I noticed he wasn’t really presenting a lot of Trump-branded stuff.
Dave Price: Speaking of the fair — sorry to sidetrack — Kathie already plugged her concert. My wife’s best friend came to Iowa with her little girl last week to go to Rod Stewart —
Laura Belin: Oh...
Dave Price: I appreciate the guy’s in his 80s, so we’re not dogging him — he’d had to cancel a heart procedure to be there. My beef is with Richard Marx. What the heck, man — he was supposed to be the opener, and he bailed. He could’ve had the grandstand to himself. The fair is always super accommodating about this stuff. One thing that’s pretty cool: when the headliner cancels, they refund your ticket and you get to see a free show. So they got John Waite to jump in last minute and do a free show for whoever showed up. Come on, Richard Marx! You were a guy back in the ‘80s or ‘90s — I wanted to see if he still had all that hair, since I’ve never seen him in concert. That was good date music back in the day.
Laura Belin: He probably doesn’t have a 90-minute set ready to go if he’s used to just being the opening act.
Dave Price: Oh, I hadn’t thought about that — maybe that’s it. I don’t want to give the impression that fair people were dogging Richard Marx — nobody was — I was just thinking, come on, man, step up, this is your chance to be the hero. Rant aside — let’s get to it. We’ve laid the foundation here: one thing we’ve noticed, both at the fair and near it, is Trump administration people coming through.
I grew up in a family where money was tight, and I don’t know why these folks couldn’t have come on the same plane and saved us a bunch of tax dollars. They came one by one by one. I can’t imagine what this costs in security and travel. Here’s a short list — I don’t even know if it’s complete, but I jotted a few down:
Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War/Defense — technically a campaign fundraiser for Zach Nunn
Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary — we talked about that funky, limited-media event last week
RFK Jr.
The Veterans Affairs Secretary
Trade Rep Jamieson Greer, who did something with Ashley Hinson, and I think Zach Nunn too
Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler
Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture, supposed to do something Friday evening (we’re recording Friday morning)
Attorney General Todd Blanche, here Thursday
The Deputy Attorney General, here Wednesday and Thursday
I’m probably forgetting a few.
Kathie Obradovich: I think there was a Deputy Energy Secretary too, in eastern Iowa.
Dave Price: Right, eastern Iowa. I didn’t do the mental math while rambling through all that, but it’s a lot.
Laura Belin: I think it’s nine — nine cabinet secretaries.
Dave Price: And almost all of them tied to some campaign event. RFK Jr. did stuff with Zach Lahn — a private event Tuesday night, and then an official event Wednesday with Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Lahn shot what looked like a campaign-style video where he took RFK Jr. to Zach Shields on Tuesday night, and then Wednesday morning they went fishing — I don’t know if it was on the Lahn farm, but with Lahn’s little boy. So clearly they were trying to maximize their time with him.
I can’t remember a time — and I get that the fair is cool and we’re used to seeing politicians — but can you remember an administration sending this many people to one state at once?
Kathie Obradovich: It’s more than I remember, but I can’t vouch for my memory.
Dave Price: Same — that’s why I’m always nervous bringing this stuff up, someone’s gonna correct me.
Kathie Obradovich: I was taught you’re always in trouble if you say “it’s the most” or “the biggest,” because someone will always prove you wrong. But it’s been a long time since I’ve seen this many administration officials. The one that really shocked me was Hegseth. He came in without any notice — I had colleagues in D.C. look up his official schedule, and there was nothing on it, no events at all. He doesn’t do many appearances like this. We were initially told there’d be a media availability, which sort of happened, but he didn’t really take questions. That one surprised me more than any of the others. I wasn’t surprised RFK Jr. was doing stuff with Zach Lahn, who I’d call more MAHA-Republican than MAGA. But I don’t know what other message there is besides: the Trump administration is worried about Iowa.
Laura Belin: We’re used to this administration going against long-standing norms, but the Secretary of Defense doing any kind of campaign event at all — I can’t think of a precedent for that. That would’ve been considered way out of bounds under any other administration.
Dave Price: I was thinking back — he was supposed to do Zach Nunn’s fundraiser back in March and canceled, right after we’d gone to war with Iran. The storyline then was that they’d postpone because of the war, and to their credit, that was true — it wasn’t just spin from the Nunn campaign. They rescheduled rather than canceled. But we’re still at war, five or six months later. If the narrative back then was that his focus should be on the war, well — we’re still there. Regardless of whether he flew in and out in one day, it was not the norm.
I’m not sure Kathie gave the appropriate caveat here about relying on memory, but — when have you ever covered a sitting Secretary of Defense in Iowa? I’d have to really sit and think about who’s held that office. I’m not sure I ever have.
Kathie Obradovich: I don’t recall it either. And it gave Sarah Trone Garriott an opening to say this is totally inappropriate, disgusting that he’s here during wartime, which — as we’ve discussed — is hitting Iowans in the pocketbook. So it gave her an opening, though she was actually a little restrained about it, honestly — she put out a statement in a press release, and that was about it.
Laura Belin: Zachary Oren Smith reported for Iowa Starting Line that the Department of Defense’s own guidelines say Senate-confirmed officials — and Hegseth is one — are prohibited from speaking at a political fundraiser. So I think we’re fairly safe saying this was unprecedented. You just don’t see secretaries of defense campaigning for people.
Kathie Obradovich: And they made a point of saying he was there on his own time, so presumably he flew out not on the taxpayer’s dime.
Laura Belin: I wouldn’t assume that, Kathie — now I have to go look at what was reported. Give me a second...
Dave Price: Well, I’m with Kathie on this — I was checking with somebody, and in theory they should have paid for it, since he was here on his personal behalf. They didn’t introduce him as Secretary, just as Pete Hegseth. This wasn’t an official visit, to my knowledge, in any part of the trip.
Kathie Obradovich: Because usually, right —
Laura Belin: Here it is — it was the Washington Post: Hegseth would take a U.S.-funded military aircraft to Iowa, per the Pentagon, because he’s designated a “required-use traveler” and mandated to use military aircraft for all travel, official and unofficial.
Dave Price: Yeah, that makes sense — you want him safe if there’s any security risk. But as we’ve just hit $40 trillion in national debt, is there any reason taxpayers can’t be reimbursed for that?
Kathie Obradovich: That’s the thing — people classified that way for security usually aren’t traveling for political events. So it adds to the narrative if he’s here on the taxpayer’s dime to campaign.
Dave Price: This is a little risky, since we’re recording Friday morning and folks will hear this Saturday at the earliest, maybe later. We’ve had a running joke among reporter friends this week, because of the way these visits keep getting announced — each day you find out about the next day’s visitor. Some of that’s probably security-related, but it’s also clearly spread out to maximize media coverage and attendance. We keep waiting to see if the vice president or the president will show up — we haven’t had Linda McMahon yet, though she’s been here before. It’s the America 250 celebration, so in some ways I expected the president to do an event at the fair long ago. I get the security nightmare of doing that with a gazillion people there — I’m sure it was hard enough with Hegseth — but America 250, USA-USA-USA, seems like a slam dunk for the president. I’ll be surprised if the fair wraps up with no presidential visit at all.
Kathie Obradovich: I remember the first fair when he was running for president — I thought he “won” the fair that year, honestly, because he skipped the soapbox that a bunch of his competitors did — I’m pretty sure Bernie Sanders was speaking on the soapbox — and here comes Trump’s helicopter flying overhead. Everybody looks up: oh, there’s Trump. He’d parked his helicopter in a lot near the fairgrounds and was giving rides to kids.
Dave Price: Iowa kids, yeah.
Kathie Obradovich: Circling over the fair while Bernie Sanders is mid-speech on the soapbox...
Dave Price: I wrote about that in my second book — interviewed one of the families. Imagine what that means to those kids once they’re older, thinking back, “I was in that helicopter.” And can you imagine what Bernie Sanders thought, flying home after getting almost no coverage that day? Though wait — I need to get my cycles right, that might’ve actually been 2020, I’m conflating two of them. Regardless — good reminder that Trump does things his way, and it’s theater.
Kathie Obradovich: He’s a showman, and the fair’s a perfect environment for it.
Laura Belin: Dave, did you all get a heads-up about these visits? Ashley Hinson’s campaign never tells me anything about what they’re doing — I heard another reporter complaining that when Kelly Loeffler came through the fair walking with Hinson, reporters weren’t given a heads-up.
Dave Price: This’ll give some insight into how the sausage is made — it’s a mixed bag for me. You’re gonna hit a sensitive spot, Laura: in my TV job, I worked for nine different TV stations that broadcast in Iowa, none of them based in Des Moines. So most people in Iowa who know me know how to reach me now, but outside the state, sometimes these offices don’t realize I’m actually based in Des Moines these days — part of my midlife-crisis reinvention. So I found out about Loeffler by accident, because a friend told me Hinson was at a farm-influencer tent setup. I didn’t see that, but I saw Brad Zaun there — one of the regional SBA administrators, covers about 10 states, and Loeffler would be his boss. I didn’t know beforehand Loeffler was coming. Bessent’s visit had limited media too, like we mentioned last week — my understanding is some of that’s coming from D.C. because of security concerns about crowd control. It’s a bit of a hodgepodge, honestly — I’m a little confused how it’s all worked out.
Kathie Obradovich: I have a little inside info at the fair, which is how I found out about Hegseth. We got a regular press release about RFK from HHS, and I actually communicated with one of those folks. But for some of the others, we never got any heads-up at all — nothing about Todd Blanche, for example. Mixed bag. Sometimes you find out from the pork producers who’s coming by to flip pork.
Dave Price: Speaking of which, I’ve gotta get out there. Let’s close out the week — can each of you give us a soapbox moment you witnessed? We’re not all the way through the speeches yet, since Friday and Saturday are still ahead. But is there a moment, or a storyline, from the fair that’s sticking with you heading into the next two and a half months?
Kathie Obradovich: Not a fair storyline exactly, but it wouldn’t be this show without the Libertarians —
Dave Price: They get more coverage on this podcast than any other media outlet.
Kathie Obradovich: Well — Rick Stewart spoke at the soapbox, but he hasn’t actually been allowed back onto the ballot.
Dave Price: And he’s running for governor, not to interrupt.
Kathie Obradovich: Right, for governor. Secretary of State Paul Pate has apparently said that now that the convention nomination — which came after the petition nomination failed — isn’t being accepted either. Stewart, his running mate, and another candidate running for a congressional seat are all still not allowed on the ballot. They’re all speaking at the soapbox regardless, a couple of them again on Saturday. There’s a hearing this afternoon — we’re recording Friday — in Polk County District Court, so we’re still in court over the Libertarians’ ballot status even as they get the spotlight at the fair without technically being on the ballot.
Dave Price: Gotcha. Alright, and way to keep our streak going — thank you for that, Kathie.
Kathie Obradovich: Yes, had to keep it alive.
Dave Price: Alright, Laura, what do you have?
Laura Belin: I mentioned mine already — I’ve been struck by how many Republican candidates specifically went negative on their Democratic opponents at the soapbox. Joe Mitchell in the 2nd District did it too, and Zach Nunn. But my biggest impression was the Turning Point USA people stalking and following Rob Sand, Josh Turek, and Mark Kelly around — and then they seemed to stop. I don’t know if fair staff told them to knock it off, but I’d never seen that at the fair before. It’s one thing for someone to shout something as politicians walk by — it’s another to have posters and sustained heckling. That felt like new behavior for the Iowa State Fair, in my experience.
Dave Price: I’m not sure Zach Lahn’s a big fan of that either, which may have helped tamp it down. Alright, thank you both — we’ll see what the final weekend brings, and how much of what we said today holds up over the last 48 hours of the fair. Saturday’s Vice President Vance, Sunday’s supposedly President Trump, and then everything I said today will look foolish. But you never know with this administration — it’s not impossible they show up. We’ll see. Thanks, both of you — have a great weekend.
Laura Belin: Alright, thanks.
Dave Price: Thank you all for joining us on the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. Thanks to everyone who helps us grow by sharing this and forwarding it along, and to those of you who sustain us week after week as paid subscribers — we appreciate you. Have a great week.
