We welcomed Ed Failor Jr. to the show for the first time — longtime Iowa Republican operative, former head of Iowans for Tax Relief — and put him through the paces alongside Kathie Obradovich and Laura Belin.
We dug into the new Suffolk poll. Ashley Hinson is up 45-41 on Josh Turek, Rob Sand is up 48-44 on Zach Lahn.
The Libertarians lost in court again. A judge ruled they can’t replace their disqualified candidates, so their LG and 3rd District picks are off the ballot pending a possible appeal.
We talked beef! The president’s move to allow cheaper foreign beef imports has ranchers fuming, with timing that couldn’t be worse for Iowa’s cattle counties.
And we closed on whether Hinson’s time in Congress is a liability in a statewide race. Ed says no. It’s the candidate, not the office.
Want to sharpen your writing and get the inside scoop on Iowa politics at the same time? Join us September 27-30 at the Okoboji Writers’ & Songwriters’ Retreat on beautiful West Lake Okoboji, featuring Iowa Down Ballot analysts Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. They’ll walk you through finding public information, getting your opinion pieces published, and plenty more. Spots are limited, so scan the QR code at the beginning and end of the video or head to okobojiwritersretreat.com to sign up. If you’d like to make a donation to help the Iowa Writer’s Collaborative which supports this show please click the button below. Thanks!
Auto-generated transcript below:
Dave Price: Welcome back, everybody, to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. I’m Dave Price. This week, we are going to talk about a new statewide poll that shows, yet again — in case you didn’t know this — that we have some really competitive races in this state. We’re also going to talk about beef. The president has made a move that has ticked off some cattle ranchers, and we’re going to dig into that a little bit. And we have a tradition, it seems, on this weekly podcast: we must cover the latest twists and turns of the Libertarian candidates, so we’ll do that too.
With us this week are regulars Kathie Obradovich and Laura Belin. Hello, ladies.
Kathie Obradovich: Oh!
Laura Belin: Good to see ya!
Dave Price: But this week we’ve added a fourth. This is something we’ve been talking about for quite a while, and it is now a thing: Ed Failor Jr. joins us this week. He’s a longtime Republican who has had a bunch of different jobs — he’s worked at the Statehouse, he’s worked on campaigns, he led an organization, Iowans for Tax Relief, and he’s done other stuff too. We’ll maybe get into some of that. Regardless, welcome, Ed. Thanks for doing this.
Ed Failor: Well, happy to be here. I just — people talking is a good thing.
Dave Price: It is a good thing. You and I, over the years, have had many lengthy conversations, and now we can do it here. And as you promised, you’ll work in at least one dad joke — in case any of your kids are listening to this podcast. True?
Ed Failor: I’m going to ignore the ageism of that and go with it. Yeah.
Dave Price: I’m apparently with you, because I’m accused of that all the time. I wear it as a badge of honor. All right, all right — trio.
The Suffolk University Poll
Dave Price: Let’s set things up with this new Suffolk University poll. Two of the big races we’ve talked about all year: the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race. Quick numbers — in the Senate race, Republican Ashley Hinson leads 45–41 over Democrat Josh Turek, with Libertarian Thomas Lane at 4%. The governor’s race is flipped: Democrat Rob Sand is at 48%, Republican Zach Lahn at 44%, no Libertarian in that race. That’s our tease — we’ll get to the Libertarians, but not yet.
Kathie, we’ve said again and again that it’s a competitive race — when you see these numbers, what’s the “why” of it?
Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I think one thing I liked about this poll is they asked a lot of issue questions that help explain where people are coming from, and it won’t surprise anyone — it’s the economy, it’s gas prices, it’s household expenses, grocery prices. Poll respondents were asked what they’re spending more money on, and gas and groceries topped the list. President Trump’s approval rating is down, as we’ve seen in other polls and nationally.
There’s also still a healthy number of undecided voters. I was glad to see Thomas Lane included in this poll — we hadn’t seen a poll name the Libertarian candidate before, for reasons we’ll get into. But he’s on the ballot, and he pulled about 3 points that look like they came from Republicans and 1 point from Democrats. So if we speculate about who the Libertarian hurts more in this race, it’s probably Ashley Hinson.
Dave Price: Laura, what’s your takeaway?
Laura Belin: I like to look at the composition of the electorate. I could look at this poll and say it’s encouraging for Republicans — Zach Lahn isn’t that far behind, he’s much less well-known than Rob Sand, and he has room to grow, while Hinson still has a lead. But I looked at the sample: 38% Republican, 33% Independent, 28% Democrat. That’s a decent reflection of Iowa’s registered voters as a whole, but a poor reflection of who’s likely to vote in a midterm — there’s no way independents will outnumber Democrats at the ballot box in November. Democratic turnout will be higher than independent turnout, even accounting for a stronger-than-usual independent showing.
So if I’m a Democrat, I’m looking at this poll and thinking Rob Sand’s lead could actually be understated. Also worth noting: the recalled 2024 presidential vote in this sample was Trump +11, close to Trump’s actual 13-point win in the state — but there’s no guarantee the November electorate mirrors 2024. We’ve talked about this before: if you’d polled in 2014 assuming the electorate would look like 2012’s, you’d have been way off. So — I have no idea. I do feel Hinson is slightly favored in the Senate race, but this poll doesn’t look like what the November electorate is likely to be.
Dave Price: Ed, you’ve watched how the sausage is made for years — what did you think of the headline numbers, and of the internals?
Ed Failor: Laura stole one of my two points, so it must have been a good one — the composition of who they polled isn’t what the electorate is actually going to look like. That was my biggest takeaway, and Laura’s right.
The other thing: the numbers are all within the margin of error, so who really knows. Polls are a snapshot of a group of people at a given time. They brought in a good sample from Muscatine County, which is a real bellwether — that was smart. But the thing that struck me most was why people said they’re voting. Forty percent of likely voters said it’s their civic duty — for people willing to answer a poll in August, that doesn’t surprise me; I’d almost have expected that number to be higher. But 30% said they’re voting because of the political climate, and that’s interesting. Without the crosstabs, you can’t see the “why” behind that — as a Republican, I’m not happy with the climate either, and I know plenty of Democrats who aren’t public about their views, so that number cuts both ways.
Without an incumbent on the ballot, Sand and Hinson are each the closest thing to one, and having them up by a bit this early is normal — the late deciders will make the difference. I’d be concerned, as a Republican, that those numbers aren’t better given the state we’re in.
The Cabinet Visits
Dave Price: Ed, can you zoom out and look at the last couple of weeks? About the only people who haven’t visited Iowa lately are Donald Trump and J.D. Vance — I exaggerate only slightly. They sent a plane full of administration officials who did various things; a bunch went to the State Fair. Is this a protective move, making sure they don’t take chances because so much is at stake — or are they seeing the numbers, feeling the environment, and thinking “we need to reinforce en masse”?
Ed Failor: Probably a little of both, but more the latter. It’s real early for them to be doing this, so I’d assume — mathematically, as a Republican, I’m not thrilled — that the latter is more likely. It’s a way for them to plug in and help, and putting people like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Pete Hegseth in front of voters gives some gravitas without it being the president himself, which is a double-edged sword at best.
Dave Price: Sure. Laura, what do you have?
Laura Belin: I’d like Ed’s take on something. I’ve watched all the soapbox speeches, and at this stage of a campaign you often see candidates pivot toward the middle — Zach Nunn and Ashley Hinson both talked about their bipartisan work. But I was struck that Nunn brought in Pete Hegseth, and Hinson is bringing back Ted Cruz, who just campaigned with her. I’d have thought those were fairly polarizing figures they might not want to elevate. What does Ed make of that?
Ed Failor: I think Hegseth’s appearance is interesting, and probably less polarizing than we’d assume — most voters don’t have strong feelings about him one way or the other, even though people like us in the political world do. I think the mistake people in our world and in the press make is assuming the average Iowan is paying close attention yet. So bringing in Hegseth is partly about just getting people to pay attention.
Ted Cruz, I find more interesting — is that about shoring up the “I’m a real conservative” credential? If you went to church this weekend and asked people whether they know who Pete Hegseth is, you’d mostly get “I’ve heard the name” — but he’s from the administration, and that adds some weight. Years ago, when Tom Vilsack was governor, there was a name-ID poll — something like 70% of Iowans knew who Vilsack was, but when the same group was asked who the governor of Iowa was, the number dropped well below two-thirds. People often want to sound informed more than they want to give the honest answer.
Dave Price: Well, our seniors will be better educated now — they have that new civics requirement kicking in for the first graduating class this year, right?
Ed Failor: Oh, I thought you meant senior citizens — that was a jab.
Dave Price: No, no — no ageism on this show, it hits too close to home.
The Libertarian Update
Dave Price: Ed, I know this is your first time on, but we have a running joke: almost every week we have to update the latest twist with the Libertarian candidates — virtually every week for the last month and a half, save maybe one when I was on vacation. Laura, run us through the newest twist.
Laura Belin: Last time we covered this, the Libertarians were trying to use the legal process to replace candidates after some got disqualified — nominating new candidates for lieutenant governor and in the 3rd Congressional District. That went through Polk County District Court on an accelerated timetable, with briefs but no hearing. Judge Joseph Seidlin ruled yesterday that the Libertarians hadn’t followed the correct process under Iowa law: they could have used this replacement process, but it required filing paperwork with the Secretary of State by June 2 listing their central committee members and their vacancy-filling procedure — and they hadn’t done that. Because they’d skipped that earlier step, their state central committee couldn’t nominate replacements in August. I checked with the Libertarian Party chair yesterday, and she said they aren’t sure yet whether they’ll appeal to the Iowa Supreme Court.
Kathie Obradovich: So we may not be done with this — we might get at least one more show out of it. The joke isn’t really that we’re talking about the Libertarians, it’s that we’re probably covering them more consistently than any other political podcast in the country, given this long-running battle to get on the ballot. Credit to Thomas Lane for actually getting on — he’s shown up in a poll now, so people evidently think he’s staying on the ballot. In the 3rd District, the Nunn campaign is probably relieved not to be facing a Libertarian, though Marco Battaglia could have pulled votes from both sides. Their intended replacement candidate was Jacob Heard. So there was real potential for the Libertarians to matter in that race, but they keep struggling to actually get on the ballot — partly because of the scrutiny they’re under.
Dave Price: There’s no cushion for them the way there is for someone like Lane — you collect signatures, fill out the paperwork right, and you build in a buffer because you know people are going to scrutinize everything.
Kathie Obradovich: And apparently you have to use your real name.
Dave Price: We now know that. And Rick Stewart stays on as the Libertarian candidate in the 2nd Congressional District — that one’s set. There are a couple more I want to ask Ed about, but first —
Beef and Tariffs
Dave Price: — a development I find fascinating, especially after doing more ag-focused work these last few years: the president’s decision to allow more foreign beef, likely ground beef, into the country, with a suggestion that it be priced 25% below market value. There’s a lot we don’t know, like which countries it’ll come from.
Ed Failor: It’s not mandatory that it be sold 25% below market — it’s suggested, not required, at least from everything I’ve read so far.
Dave Price: Right, so a lot of open questions about how this plays out. But if you’re a U.S. cattle rancher, you’re ticked off — the national herd is the smallest it’s been in about 75 years, and beef prices are at or near record highs; ground beef is around $7 a pound, the highest ever. Ed, you were at the State Fair talking to ag folks — how are they feeling about this? They understand beef is expensive, but they don’t see how this counts as “America First,” and it’s supposed to be temporary — 90 days. A couple months ago the president was mocking Democrats for using the word “affordability,” and now this looks aimed at finding cheaper meat for people struggling with grocery bills. What’s going on?
Ed Failor: I think the intention is good, hopefully — but in practice I don’t see how it works well. This is roughly 660 million pounds of ground beef trimmings. Just in grocery stores, U.S. ground beef sales run about 720 million pounds a year — and that doesn’t even count restaurants, which account for a huge share of beef consumption. So it’s a real adjustment, even over just three months. Here’s a concern I heard from a rancher friend: this is right about when spring calves go to market. That timing issue is one of the bigger impacts I haven’t seen written about much — if I were an Iowa rancher, that would concern me. I think the intention was good, but I’m not sure it plays out well for ranchers, and in the end it may not play out that well for consumers either, since it affects the growth of herds already here.
Dave Price: And total U.S. beef production is something like 20-something billion pounds a year, so relative to that, 660 million pounds is a small slice — big in dollar terms, but probably a minimal impact on price overall.
Ed Failor: Well, except ground beef is the largest single category of beef sold in the U.S. — about 30% of all beef sold. So on the big picture it’s small, but that number you cited includes restaurant volume too. It’s still a big enough impact that, if I’m a rancher bringing cattle to market this fall while this is happening, I’m not thrilled about it.
Dave Price: Your future dinner, basically.
Ed Failor: My future dinner, and I love beef. So those are the things I see as potential missteps or unintended consequences here.
Laura Belin: Ed, we’re even now, because you stole my point — that this 90-day window is clearly timed to get through the election with lower prices, but it lands exactly when a lot of cattle ranchers are bringing beef to market, so the timing is bad for them. Separately, Natalie Furtig, who writes a state-focused newsletter, published something based on the 2022 USDA Census of Agriculture: Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District ranks 14th nationally for beef cattle sales, and the 1st and 3rd Districts are both in the top 30 — 27th and 29th. So three of Iowa’s four congressional districts are in the national top 30 for beef cattle sales. That’s going to be felt in the competitive congressional races.
Kathie Obradovich: It’ll be interesting to see how many voters actually connect what they see at the supermarket to tariff and trade policy. In Maine, for example, there was a lot of anxiety over Canadian tariffs, but Canada exempted lobster and seafood from its retaliatory tariffs, and that’s credited with saving Maine’s lobster industry — so in some parts of the country, people clearly do connect trade policy to prices at the register. But I doubt that’s true for most voters; most of us just react to whatever our grocery total is. And to be clear, we’re mostly talking about wholesale pricing here — a lower import price doesn’t mean the price you and I pay at checkout drops nearly as much. I wouldn’t expect a fast-food hamburger to get 25% cheaper because of these imports. How much of that wholesale drop actually reaches the register is a big open question.
Statewide Office From Congress
Dave Price: We’re coming up on our self-imposed time limit, so one more for Ed. This came up in another conversation — Randy Feenstra’s struggles in the primary, and someone raised the broader challenge of members of Congress running for statewide office, where there’s a recent track record of people struggling with that. Does Hinson have anything to worry about there, or does her TV background — which makes us all naturally brilliant communicators, I’m kidding — give her something different working in her favor? She’s clearly a different kind of candidate than Feenstra or Bruce Braley.
Ed Failor: Right — and I think that’s really it. I love Randy Feenstra, but just as a candidate, Hinson is a more dynamic one, and I think that’s what tends to matter more than the “only governors get elected president” framing, which isn’t even really true — we get hung up on things that aren’t always accurate. I think it’s mostly coincidence that Bruce Braley’s campaign was what it was and Feenstra’s campaign was what it was — more a function of the individual candidates. Ashley’s someone who’s been putting herself out there, works a crowd well, and relates to people well, and that’s probably why she has a better opportunity than some others have had.
Oh, and — do you know what a fish says when it swims into a cement wall?
Dave Price: No.
Ed Failor: Dam.
Kathie Obradovich: (laughing) Thank you — I love it.
Dave Price: Goodness. Well, you said you’d come through with one.
Ed Failor: I had to. Man of my word.
What’s Next
Dave Price: Kathie, anything to tee up for the Iowa Capital Dispatch this weekend?
Kathie Obradovich: We’ve got dueling political events Saturday — Ashley Hinson’s event and the Polk County Democrats’ Steak Fry are both happening, so we’ll have reporters at both. Also, earlier this week we had an interesting story on how the constitutional amendment requiring a supermajority to raise income and corporate tax rates is shaping up — that race looks close too. The party breakdown was interesting: more Republicans than Democrats support it, but there’s Democratic support as well. Most people don’t know much about it yet, so there’s a lot of undecided sentiment.
Dave Price: In the interest of efficiency, wouldn’t it have been nice if the Hinson barbecue and the Polk County Steak Fry were at the same venue? They could’ve split the meat cost and made it easier on the media to bounce from one to the other. Come on, people. Laura, what do you have working?
Laura Belin: I’ll be at the Steak Fry tomorrow too. Earlier this week I published a deep dive on the U.S. Senate race, and my next piece is likely going to be a deep dive on the Attorney General’s race — there are already TV ads out on both sides, which I don’t think we’ve seen this early in an AG race before. It’s shaping up to be highly competitive.
Dave Price: Outstanding. Mr. Failor — thanks for being with us, we appreciate your time.
Ed Failor: Happy to be here, thanks for doing it. You all are great, and brilliant — because, you know, when you’re in the media, you’re brilliant.
Dave Price: Thank you — we need to hear that, it counters some of the online trolling we deal with.
Ed Failor: As a conservative endorsement: if I didn’t find you all very intelligent, I wouldn’t be doing this.
Kathie Obradovich: That’s sweet.
Dave Price: We’re all about civility here. Appreciate your perspective, and thanks for doing this — I hope you’ll come back.
Ed Failor: I will, absolutely.
Dave Price: Laura, Kathie, you too — have a great weekend. We’ll reconvene next week. Thanks to all of you for sitting in on this expanded episode of the Iowa Down Ballot podcast, and thanks to our new subscribers and new paid subscribers. If you’re willing, take the link when you get it and share it with a few hundred of your friends — we appreciate the help spreading the word, especially now that we’re about two and a half months out from the 2026 election. Have a great week ahead, and we’ll see you next week.
